Dolphins vs. Vikings Recap: Five Field Goals Carry Minnesota

The Vikings beat the Dolphins 15-10 in Week 4. Minnesota got all of its points from Will Reichard, who kicked five field goals (47, 50, 33, 41 and 29 yards), and the Vikings moved the ball far more than Miami: 336 total yards to 198, with 39:11 of possession. Minnesota converted none of its 3 red zone trips into touchdowns, which is why the game stayed close. Miami's only touchdown was a 12-yard run by Ollie Gordon II late in the third quarter, and the Dolphins managed just 77 passing yards. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Vikings ML (-535 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Miami was winless, starting Malik Willis and short several defenders and a receiver, while Minnesota was a 10-point home favorite even without Justin Jefferson. - What happened: The Vikings won 15-10, a 5-point margin. Miami had three first downs through the air, converted 2 of 9 third downs and lost a fumble on a 3-play, 20-yard drive in the second quarter. - Worth watching: A price this heavy leaves no room for a close game, and this one was close. We would treat a favorite at -535 as a tool for parlays and exposure, not a stand-alone play.

ALT: Dolphins team total Under 20.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Miami had Willis at quarterback, De'Von Achane on IR and a receiver out. The game total of 38.5 with Minnesota -10 put Miami's implied score near 14, so 20.5 left almost a touchdown of cushion. - What happened: Miami scored 10, 10.5 under the line. The Dolphins had one field goal and one touchdown, punted on most of their drives and finished with 198 total yards. - Worth watching: An alt team total on an offense with a thin skill group gives you cushion without a bad price. Check who is starting at quarterback before anything else.

ALT: T.J. Hockenson 25+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Jefferson was out with an ankle injury, which frees targets for Hockenson. DraftKings had him at 38.5 yards, so 25 left a 13-yard cushion. - What happened: 13 catches on 13 targets for 119 yards, 94 past the 25-yard mark, with a long of 22. He caught every ball thrown his way. - Worth watching: Thirteen targets is a workload number. If Minnesota's receiver group is thin again, his lines are worth a look, but a 13-target game can move the next number.

ALT: Aaron Jones Sr. 50+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: His main line was 67.5 rushing yards on 17.5 carries. He was active, and a 10-point home favorite should lean on the run in the second half. - What happened: 20 carries for 94 yards (4.7 per carry), 44 past the 50-yard mark, plus 4 catches for 34 yards. Minnesota ran 31 times for 123 yards as a team. - Worth watching: Game script and carry volume did the work here. Minnesota held the ball for 39:11, and Jones had 20 carries to work with.

ALT: Jordan Addison 45+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Jefferson was inactive again. The last time he sat, in Week 3, Addison caught 5 of 9 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Miami had allowed an 80.3% completion rate with zero sacks, and DraftKings had the main line at 62.5. - What happened: 4 catches on 6 targets for 52 yards, 7 past the 45-yard mark. His long was 27 yards. - Worth watching: He cleared the alt line but fell short of the main line of 62.5, which is exactly why we stepped down. The gap between the main number and the alt is the point of this angle.

ALT: Jordan Addison 4+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: With Jefferson out, Addison became Kyler Murray's top target. Books had him at 4.5 catches, and 4 was the safer step. - What happened: Exactly 4 catches on 6 targets, the bare minimum. - Worth watching: This one landed on the number with nothing to spare. Receptions are a volume stat, so we look at target counts first, and 6 was only a modest share on a day Hockenson got 13.

How the game played out

Neither offense scored a touchdown until the Dolphins' late third-quarter run, which cut Minnesota's lead from 12-3 to 12-10. The Vikings answered with a 15-play, 60-yard drive that ate 8:30 and ended in a field goal, then closed the game with an 11-play, 74-yard drive for the final 5:41. Minnesota was sacked 4 times and had 11 penalties for 85 yards, and Miami was sacked 2 times and had 9 penalties for 55.

Trends to watch

• Hockenson's 13 targets and Jones's 20 carries show where Minnesota's offense leaned when it did not have its top receiver. Check the target and carry split any time the receiver room changes.
• Miami's offense moved slowly: 3 first downs through the air, a 2-9 third-down line and 77 passing yards. A low team total or low receiving lines against this group are worth a look when the quarterback and skill group look the same.
• Minnesota's red zone trouble (no touchdowns in 3 trips) kept the margin to 5 points. Spreads and alt lines on the Vikings should account for drives that stall in field goal range.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More in NFL, the alt line glossary entry and player props.