Eagles vs. Bears Recap: The Under, Smith and Swift Cash in 27-7 Rout
The Bears beat the Eagles 27-7 on Monday night, and Chicago controlled it from the first drive. Case Keenum, making his first start since 2023, opened with an 11-play, 66-yard touchdown drive, and Chicago never trailed. Philadelphia got within 10-7 on a Jalen Hurts 1-yard run as the first half ended, then managed three punts, an interception and a turnover on downs after the break. Chicago held the ball for 36:53, and the Eagles turned it over 3 times. 18 DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all posted before kickoff.
What cashed
Under 41.5 total points: CASHED ALT: Under 45.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED Under 45.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: The total fell 5 points on the Keenum news, and backup-QB games have gone Over only 46.6% of the time over the last five years. With Philly missing Dallas Goedert and Hollywood Brown, we expected Chicago to run and shorten the game. - What happened: 34 total points, 7.5 under the main number and 11.5 under the alt. Chicago ran 35 times and the Eagles scored once. - Worth watching: A backup QB on one side and a thin receiving room on the other is a spot where the under deserves a look, ideally before the number finishes moving.
DeVonta Smith 50+ receiving yards: CASHED ALT: DeVonta Smith 50+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: With Goedert and Brown inactive, Smith was Hurts' clear No. 1 target. He came in averaging 85 receiving yards a game. - What happened: 6 catches on a team-high 8 targets for 65 yards, 15.5 over the line, with a long of 30. - Worth watching: As long as Philly is short on pass catchers, his low yardage rungs stay worth a look.
ALT: DeVonta Smith 5+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED DeVonta Smith over 5.5 receptions (-110): CASHED - Our read: Smith had 13 catches on 19 targets through two games, and Chicago nickel corner Kyler Gordon was out. - What happened: 6 catches. The alt had a catch to spare; the 5.5 line cleared by half a catch. - Worth watching: The 5.5 line needed every catch. The alt rung is the cleaner way to play this volume.
Kalif Raymond over 24.5 receiving yards (-114): CASHED ALT: Kalif Raymond 3+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Raymond led the Bears with 14 targets coming in, and quick throws to the slot fit a Keenum game plan. - What happened: 6 catches on 7 targets for 90 yards, including a 41-yard touchdown from Keenum in the third quarter that made it 20-7. That is 65.5 over the yardage line and 3.5 over the catch line. - Worth watching: If Keenum starts again, Raymond's catch and yardage lines deserve a look.
ALT: D'Andre Swift 45+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED ALT: D'Andre Swift 2+ receptions (alt, targeted -200 to -250): CASHED - Our read: With Keenum under center we expected Ben Johnson to lean on the run, and Swift had 169 rush yards in two games. We also expected Keenum to check it down to him after he drew 6 targets the week before. - What happened: 20 carries for 84 yards, 39.5 over the alt, plus 2 catches for 4 yards, exactly enough on the reception alt. - Worth watching: 20 carries is a lead-back load. The catches were thin, so the rushing side looks like the stronger angle.
ALT: Kyle Monangai 25+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Monangai had exactly 10 carries in both games and a full practice on the knee. - What happened: 10 carries again, for 31 yards, 6.5 over the alt. - Worth watching: His role looks fixed at about 10 carries, so low alt rungs give the most room.
ALT: Saquon Barkley 45+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED ALT: Saquon Barkley 12+ rushing attempts (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Barkley was active after last week's stinger and ran for 83 on 15 carries in Week 1. Chicago allows 4.6 yards per carry to backs. - What happened: 15 carries for 82 yards with a long of 17, 37.5 over the yardage alt and 3.5 over the carry alt, even with Philly trailing all second half. - Worth watching: He matched his Week 1 carry count, a good sign he is healthy. The low rungs gave room in a game script that turned against Philly.
ALT: Jalen Hurts 15+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED Jalen Hurts under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Down two pass catchers, we expected more designed QB runs, and a low total with a run-first script sending red-zone work to the ground. - What happened: Hurts ran 4 times for 25 yards, 10.5 over the alt, with a long of 20. He threw for 153 yards and no touchdowns, and Philly's only score was his 1-yard run. - Worth watching: One 20-yard run did most of the work on the rushing alt. The passing TD under is worth a look any time Philly is short on targets.
ALT: Dontayvion Wicks 25+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: With Goedert and Brown out, one deep target could clear it. - What happened: 2 catches on 5 targets for 32 yards, long of 19, 7.5 over. - Worth watching: 5 targets is real volume for a third option in this offense.
Case Keenum over 28.5 passing attempts (-114): CASHED - Our read: We expected Chicago, a 3.5-point home underdog, to throw enough to push volume, with FTN projecting 33 attempts. - What happened: Keenum completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns, 5.5 over the line even with Chicago leading for most of the night. This was one of our lower-confidence plays, and it landed. - Worth watching: Chicago ran 35 times and still threw 34, thanks to the possession edge.
Trends to watch
- Chicago's backfield: Swift 20 carries, Monangai 10 for a third straight game. That split looks set.
- Philly's targets without Goedert and Brown: Smith 8, Wicks 5. Smith is the volume play; Wicks is the deep-shot alt.
- Philly's mistakes: 3 turnovers and 10 penalties for 61 yards. Those extend opponent possessions, which helps opposing volume props.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to ladders? See alt lines, totals and the NFL hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.