Falcons vs. Saints Recap: Bijan's 145 Yards Lead 23 Cashed Plays

The Falcons beat the Saints 45-24 on Monday night, and it was 14-0 before the first quarter ended. Bijan Robinson scored on runs of 59 and 4 yards, the second after a New Orleans fumble gave Atlanta a short field. Brian Robinson Jr. added three rushing touchdowns, Michael Penix Jr. hit Jahan Dotson for a 31-yard score, and Atlanta finished with 205 rushing yards and no turnovers. Twenty-three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Bijan Robinson 70+ rushing yards (-234 at DraftKings): CASHED

Bijan Robinson over 86.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings): CASHED

Bijan Robinson anytime TD (-200 at BetMGM): CASHED - Our read: Robinson had 194 rushing yards in Penix's first start back, and the Saints ranked 27th against the run without LBs Kaden Elliss and Anfernee Jennings and DE Carl Granderson. - What happened: 19 carries, 145 yards, 7.6 a carry and both first-quarter touchdowns. That is 58.5 over the 86.5 line. - Worth watching: The 59-yard run on the third snap did a lot of the work. Against a front this thin, his yardage lines are worth a look first.

Chris Olave 70+ receiving yards (-218 at DraftKings): CASHED

Chris Olave 80+ receiving yards (-144 at FanDuel): CASHED

Chris Olave over 6.5 receptions (-139): CASHED - Our read: Olave had cleared 85 yards in every game, and Atlanta was without CB A.J. Terrell while its run defense pushed New Orleans to throw. - What happened: 8 catches on 12 targets for 116 yards with a long of 44, 36.5 over the 80+ number. - Worth watching: He led the Saints in targets. Trailing all night kept his volume up.

Juwan Johnson 25+ receiving yards (-114 at DraftKings): CASHED

Juwan Johnson 40+ receiving yards (-172 at FanDuel): CASHED

Juwan Johnson over 43.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365): CASHED

Juwan Johnson over 3.5 receptions (-111 at DraftKings): CASHED

Juwan Johnson 4+ receptions (-200 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: With Noah Fant inactive, Johnson was the only real Saints tight end, and he had 50+ yards in all three games. - What happened: 6 catches on 8 targets for 59 yards, 15.5 over the 43.5 line and 2.5 over the catches number. - Worth watching: If Fant stays out, his route share holds.

Alvin Kamara over 2.5 receptions (-155 at BetMGM): CASHED

Alvin Kamara over 15.5 receiving yards (-109 to -113): CASHED

Alvin Kamara under 35.5 rushing yards: CASHED - Our read: Atlanta allowed a league-low 47.7 rushing yards a game, so Kamara's touches would lean toward checkdowns from Tyler Shough, with Kendre Miller taking some carries. - What happened: 7 carries for 23 yards, 12.5 under, plus 5 catches on 7 targets for 35 yards. He still scored twice on short runs. - Worth watching: The Saints ran 19 times for 50 yards as a team. His receiving lines fit this matchup better than his rushing lines.

Drake London 70+ receiving yards (-180 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: London had 194 yards in Penix's first start back, and the Saints ranked 31st in defensive success rate. - What happened: 96 yards with a long of 37, 26.5 over the number. - Worth watching: Penix threw only 20 passes and London still got there. His yards per catch carried it.

Tyler Shough 250+ passing yards (-151 at DraftKings): CASHED

Tyler Shough over 34.5 pass attempts (-105 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Shough had thrown 56, 34 and 42 times, Travis Etienne was on IR, and Atlanta ranked 29th against the pass. - What happened: 30 completions on 48 attempts for 286 yards, 13.5 over the attempts line and 36.5 over the yardage number. - Worth watching: Volume follows the scoreboard. Trailing from the third snap on, the Saints kept throwing.

Michael Penix Jr. over 222.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM): CASHED - Our read: The Saints were missing Granderson and Jennings off the edge plus Elliss, and Penix threw for 256 on 25 attempts in his return. - What happened: He completed 15 of 20 passes for 223 yards, clearing by 0.5. The 31-yard touchdown to Dotson in the fourth got him there. - Worth watching: At 60 confidence this was a long shot that landed. Atlanta ran 35 times with the lead, which caps his attempts.

Falcons ML (+102 at DraftKings): CASHED

Falcons +1.5 (-112 at DraftKings): CASHED

ALT: Falcons +3.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: The line moved from Saints -3 to -1.5, Atlanta ranked 3rd in defensive success rate and 1st against the run, and New Orleans was short three front-seven starters. - What happened: Atlanta won by 21. The Falcons outgained New Orleans 420 to 320 and scored touchdowns on 4 of 5 red zone trips. - Worth watching: When the read is on the side, the moneyline at plus money paid more than either spread.

Over 47.5 total points (-105 at Fanatics): CASHED

ALT: Over 43.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Saints games had landed on 61, 41 and 62, both defenses were short-handed, and it was a dome game. - What happened: 69 total points, 21.5 over the 47.5. Eleven touchdowns and field goals combined, with Atlanta scoring 45 on its own. - Worth watching: The alt bought cushion it never needed.

How the game played out

New Orleans' second drive went 53 yards and ended in a missed field goal. Its next one lasted a single snap before the fumble. The Saints moved the ball through the air but turned it over on downs in the fourth before Devaughn Vele's 3-yard catch made it 45-24 with 1:13 left.

Trends to watch

• Brian Robinson Jr. had 14 carries and all three of Atlanta's short rushing touchdowns. That goal-line role matters for anytime TD prices on both backs.
• Shough has 48 attempts here after 56, 34 and 42. Saints pass volume stays high.
• Atlanta's run defense held the Saints to 50 rushing yards. Saints rushing unders keep fitting this matchup.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the alt line and the player prop, or find more recaps on the NFL hub.