Panthers vs. Browns Recap: Plus Points and Judkins Cash in 21-18 Game

The Browns beat the Panthers 21-18 on a 14-yard Harold Fannin Jr. touchdown catch with 1:48 left, followed by a Deshaun Watson two-point pass to Denzel Boston. Carolina outgained Cleveland 360 yards to 259 and took an 18-13 lead on a John Metchie III catch with 4:25 to go, but scored one touchdown on three red zone trips and leaned on four Ryan Fitzgerald field goals. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Panthers +5.5: CASHED - Our read: Carolina was a short road favorite at -1.5, and Cleveland was without LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and G Teven Jenkins. With the total sitting at 41.5, we took extra points on the Panthers instead of laying the short number. - What happened: Carolina lost by 3, so +5.5 cashed with 2.5 points to spare. The Panthers were up 18-13 until the Browns scored with 1:48 left, and even after the Browns' late touchdown and two-point conversion, the margin stayed inside the number. - Worth watching: Carolina moved the ball, with 262 passing yards, but kept stalling out for field goals. When an offense settles for field goals like this, games tend to stay close, and that is when a buy to plus points is worth pricing.

Quinshon Judkins over 59.5 rushing yards (-115 at Hard Rock): CASHED - Our read: Carolina had allowed a league-high 173.5 rushing yards a game through two weeks, and six of the last eight backs to face them went over. The Panthers were also without LB Devin Lloyd. - What happened: Judkins ran 18 times for 70 yards, 10.5 over the line, and his longest run was 11 yards. He added 2 catches for 9 yards. Cleveland ran it 30 times for 132 yards as a team, with Watson adding 45 yards on 11 carries. - Worth watching: Volume got this one home. He cleared the line without a single big run, which is the kind of workload that makes his rushing number worth a look against soft run defenses.

How the game played out

Neither team scored in the first quarter. Cleveland went up 10-0 late in the first half on a 48-yard Andre Szmyt field goal and a 2-yard Fannin catch. Fitzgerald then hit from 35, 41, 53 and 37 yards to put Carolina up 12-10 early in the fourth. Bryce Young threw for 291 yards but completed 26 of 48 passes, and the last Carolina drive ended in a Ronnie Hickman interception. The Browns were flagged 12 times for 84 yards and still found a way.

Trends to watch

• Judkins had 18 carries and 2 targets, and Watson ran 11 times himself. Cleveland is willing to lean on the ground, which keeps Judkins' carry count steady.
• Fannin saw 9 targets and caught 7 of them for 51 yards and both Cleveland touchdowns. His usage near the goal line is worth tracking.
• Carolina converted 4 of 15 third downs and scored one touchdown in three red zone trips. That kind of finishing keeps margins small.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to the terms? Read up on alt lines and player props, or see today's board on the NFL hub.