Raiders vs. Saints Recap: Four Late Saints Turnovers Flip It

Las Vegas won 35-27 in New Orleans, and it had to come from behind to do it. The Saints scored two touchdowns 54 seconds apart in the third quarter, the second one after a Raiders kickoff fumble, to lead 27-16. From there the Raiders scored 19 straight points, and New Orleans turned the ball over on each of its last four possessions. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, and all five came from the same place: the Saints' passing volume and a Raiders run game we didn't trust.

What cashed

ALT: Tyler Shough 20+ completions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Shough was 62-of-90 through two starts, about 31 completions a game, and WR Barion Brown was out. Even a lighter script should get him to 20.
• What happened: He threw for 255 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception on 29-of-42 passing. That cleared 19.5 by 9.5 completions.
• Worth watching: The attempts showed up, and the alt had plenty of room.

Tyler Shough over 22.5 completions (-127 at Caesars): CASHED

• Our read: He was averaging 31 completions on 45 attempts, so the main line sat 8 below his pace.
• What happened: 29 completions beat 22.5 by 6.5. New Orleans held the ball for 32:28 and still threw 42 times.
• Worth watching: Volume was the whole case, and the volume was there. As long as his attempts stay in the 40s, this number is worth a look.

ALT: Chris Olave 55+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Olave had 18 catches for 268 yards in two games, and Brown being out took away the Saints' other outside option.
• What happened: He caught 9 of 13 targets for 107 yards, clearing 54.5 by 52.5. His longest catch was 19 yards, so this was steady volume, not one big play.
• Worth watching: 13 targets is a lead receiver's workload.

Chris Olave over 77.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars): CASHED

• Our read: He had been clearing this number by 50+ a game, and his target share should rise with Brown out.
• What happened: 107 yards beat 77.5 by 29.5, with no single catch longer than 19 yards.
• Worth watching: With double-digit targets, the main line pays better than the alt and still had room here.

Ashton Jeanty under 69.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Jeanty was at 3.4 yards per carry behind a run game ranked last at 2.8 per attempt.
• What happened: He ran 19 times for 56 yards, 2.9 a carry with a long of 12, and finished 13.5 under. The Raiders' best run came from Mike Washington Jr., a 36-yard touchdown on his way to 54 yards on 5 carries.
• Worth watching: The efficiency read held even on a 19-carry workload. Carries alone don't make a rushing over.

How the game played out

Kirk Cousins finished with 248 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions on 22-of-33 passing, and all three scores came from 4 yards or closer. Hezekiah Masses had the interception and returned it 35 yards, and Maxx Crosby recovered a fumble. The Saints outgained Vegas 381 to 340 and went 4-for-4 in the red zone, but four turnovers in the second half decided it.

Trends to watch

• Shough threw 42 times and Olave saw 13 targets. The Saints' passing volume is the most repeatable thing we saw here.
• Jeanty averaged 2.9 yards a carry while Washington Jr. ran for 54 on 5 carries. Watch how the Raiders split the backfield work.
• Brock Bowers caught 10 of 13 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. His target share is worth tracking on the Vegas side.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, player props and our NFL hub.