Rams vs. Broncos Recap: Nix Wins It Late as Adams and Kyren Cash
The Broncos beat the Rams 30-26 on Sunday night after trailing 16-0 at halftime. Los Angeles outgained Denver 482 to 257 but scored one touchdown on four red zone trips. Denver tied it in the third quarter with two touchdowns and two two-point conversions, Talanoa Hufanga took an interception 66 yards for the lead, and after Konata Mumpfield's 48-yard catch put the Rams back in front, Bo Nix ran it in from 1 yard out with 47 seconds left. Fifteen DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, and most came from one idea: with Puka Nacua out, the Rams offense would run through Davante Adams and Kyren Williams.
What cashed
ALT: Davante Adams 55+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: With Nacua out, Adams was Matthew Stafford's clear No. 1 target, and 55+ sat 20 yards under the 75.5 main. - What happened: 7 catches on 13 targets for 137 yards, clearing the alt by 82.5. - Worth watching: Alt yardage lines on Adams make sense while Nacua sits.
Davante Adams 60+ receiving yards: CASHED - Our read: The last time Nacua sat, Adams caught 8 of 10 targets for 195 yards and 2 TDs against the Giants. - What happened: Same 137-yard night, 77.5 yards clear. - Worth watching: Nacua's status is the swing factor. Check it before building around Adams again.
Davante Adams 6+ receptions (-127 consensus): CASHED - Our read: Sean McVay pointed to Week 4 for Nacua's return, so Adams stayed the top option. - What happened: 7 catches, one to spare. A long shot on our confidence scale that landed. - Worth watching: Catch totals are tighter than yardage; 13 targets did the work here.
ALT: Davante Adams 5+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: His main was 5.5 with the over juiced to -127, so 5+ was the cushion after 10 targets the week before. - What happened: 7 catches, two to spare. - Worth watching: The alt catch line is the cleaner way to play target share when the main is juiced.
ALT: Kyren Williams 40+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Denver came in allowing 157.5 rushing yards a game (29th), and Williams averages 63 against a 54.5 main. - What happened: 15 carries for 88 yards with a long of 30, 48.5 over. - Worth watching: Soft run defenses keep his rushing alts in play.
Kyren Williams over 12.5 receiving yards (-114 at BetMGM): CASHED - Our read: No proven second receiver meant more check-downs, and he had cleared 12.5 in 7 of his last 8 games. - What happened: 6 catches on 7 targets for 70 yards, 57.5 over. - Worth watching: Stafford threw 55 times. On pass-heavy nights the back's receiving line is a cheap way in.
Kyren Williams 13+ rushing attempts (-102 consensus): CASHED - Our read: Without Nacua, LA leans on its lead back, and the Rams were road favorites (-130 at DraftKings). - What happened: 15 carries. Another long shot on our scale that came through. - Worth watching: 158 scrimmage yards on 21 touches is the base for every Kyren prop.
ALT: Rams team total Under 27.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: LA was implied around 23 with no Nacua, on a short week, at altitude. - What happened: The Rams scored 26, 1.5 under, settling for field goals. - Worth watching: Red zone stalls and 13 penalties for 91 yards kept 482 yards under the number.
ALT: Broncos +4.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: The line moved from Rams -2.5 to -1.5 with sharp money on Denver. - What happened: Denver won outright 30-26, 8.5 points of cushion. - Worth watching: Line movement toward a home dog is worth tracking.
Bo Nix under 15.5 rushing yards (-109 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Nix had 8 carries for 8 yards through two games. - What happened: 4 carries for 7 yards, including the winning 1-yard touchdown. 8.5 under. - Worth watching: His rushing line still looks high for how little he runs.
Bo Nix under 21.5 completions (-126 consensus): CASHED - Our read: Denver was without WR Marvin Mims and planned to lean on the run at home. - What happened: Nix completed 17 of 34 passes (186 yards), 4.5 under. A long shot on our scale. - Worth watching: Low-efficiency nights keep this under alive.
Courtland Sutton under 3.5 receptions (-135 consensus): CASHED - Our read: Sutton had 2 and 3 catches in his first two games on 5 and 4 targets. - What happened: 3 catches for 46 yards, half a catch under. - Worth watching: His targets rose to 7, so this under got thin.
RJ Harvey 3+ receptions (-147 consensus): CASHED - Our read: Harvey caught all 4 targets in Week 1, and with Jonah Coleman out the passing-down snaps went to him. - What happened: 6 catches on 7 targets for 41 yards, the most catches on Denver. - Worth watching: He had just 2 carries. His catch props fit him better than rushing props.
Evan Engram under 23.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365): CASHED - Our read: His route participation fell to 39% of dropbacks in Week 2, and the Rams allow the sixth-fewest yards to tight ends. - What happened: 0 catches on 2 targets. - Worth watching: His usage is worth checking before the next under.
ALT: J.K. Dobbins 35+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Dobbins practiced in full and led a two-man backfield with Coleman out. - What happened: 17 carries for 49 yards, 14.5 over, with a long of just 6. - Worth watching: At 2.9 yards per carry, volume carried this. Alts fit him better than mains.
How the game played out
Stafford threw for 390 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, both to Hufanga, including the one that ended the Rams' last drive. Harrison Mevis kicked four field goals. Denver scored touchdowns on all three of its red zone trips.
Trends to watch
- Adams saw 13 targets and Kyren saw 7 with Nacua out. Those two are the Rams offense until he is back.
- Denver split its backfield: Dobbins took 17 carries and Harvey caught 6 passes.
- The Rams scored 26 on 482 yards. Red zone trouble matters for team totals and touchdown prices.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on alt lines, player props and the NFL hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.