DARIMARKET
NFL · Game recap · Sun, Nov 1

Ravens vs. Bills Recap: Bills Roll 36-10 as Allen and Shakir Cash

Final · Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Bills 36, Ravens 10
Board plays on this game
7 of 11 hit. We post the misses too.

The Bills beat the Ravens 36-10, and Baltimore never led. Josh Allen ran in a 1-yard touchdown on the opening drive, Tyler Bass added three field goals, and Buffalo took a 16-7 lead into halftime. James Cook III, DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid scored in the second half to put it away. Buffalo outgained Baltimore 426 to 144, held the ball for 37:36 and sacked Baltimore quarterbacks four times. Seven DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Bills ML (-166 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Buffalo won 8 of its last 10 while Baltimore won 5 of its last 10, and Buffalo was the favorite at -166. - What happened: The Bills led from the opening drive to the final whistle and won by 26. Baltimore's offense managed 144 total yards, was 3-13 on third down and turned it over three times. - Worth watching: This was a lower-confidence play for us at 62, and it still landed easily. Moneyline favorites in this range are worth a look when the form gap is this wide, but the price is the whole question.

ALT: Bills over 22.5 team points (-380 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Buffalo had 23+ in 7 straight and 9 of its last 10, averaging 30.2, and Baltimore had allowed 23+ in 8 of its last 10. - What happened: Buffalo scored 36, 13.5 points clear of the line. The Bills were at 23 after Cook's 5-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. - Worth watching: Team totals on an offense this steady are a clean way to play it, but at -380 there is very little room for error, so it fits best as a parlay leg or a small straight bet.

ALT: Josh Allen 247+ passing yards (-113 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Allen cleared 247+ in 7 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 20. At -113 the book implied about 53%, and recent games put it closer to 63%. - What happened: Allen completed 21 of 34 passes for 289 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 42.5 yards over the line. The second-half deep shots did it: a 49-yarder to Moore in the third and a 40-yarder to Kincaid early in the fourth. He also ran 7 times for 30 yards and the opening score. - Worth watching: At 63 confidence this was one of our lower-confidence plays here, and it landed. A near-even price on a line Allen clears most weeks is the kind of spot we keep checking.

ALT: Khalil Shakir 30+ receiving yards (-228 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Shakir cleared 30+ in 9 of his last 10 and 16 of his last 20. The -228 price implied 70%, and his recent games put it near 80%. - What happened: Shakir caught 5 of 6 targets for 64 yards, 34.5 over the line. He was past 30 by his second catch on the opening drive, a 26-yarder followed by an 18-yarder. - Worth watching: His floor is the selling point. As long as the targets stay around this level, the 30-yard alt is worth a look again.

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ALT: Khalil Shakir 4+ receptions (-122 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Shakir cleared 4+ catches in 7 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20, about 65% against a 55% price. - What happened: He finished with 5 catches, 1.5 over the line. Three came on the first drive and the fourth was a 9-yard catch in the third quarter. - Worth watching: This one had less cushion than the yardage alt. He saw six targets here, and the catch line lives and dies on volume.

Rashod Bateman under 2.5 receptions (-173 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Bateman stayed at 2 or fewer catches in 8 of his last 10 and 5 of 7 this season, with 2 catches on 4 targets the week before. - What happened: Bateman caught 1 of 3 targets for 22 yards, 1.5 under the line. Baltimore completed only 12 passes all day. - Worth watching: Unders on low-volume receivers in a struggling passing game can be a steady angle. We would keep it on the list while Baltimore's passing volume stays this low.

ALT: Ty Johnson 2+ rushing yards (-119 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Johnson cleared 2+ rushing yards in 8 of his last 10 and 17 of his last 20. The -119 price implied 54% against about 78% from recent games. - What happened: Johnson ran 4 times for 4 yards with a long of 2, which was enough by 2.5. He added 3 catches for 19 yards. - Worth watching: This is a thin line on a small role, so it only works when he gets a few carries. Check the backfield split before playing it again.

How the game played out

Baltimore got within 10-7 on a Derrick Henry 2-yard run after a Buffalo interception, but that was its only touchdown. Buffalo's defense forced three turnovers and Baltimore was 1-3 in the red zone. The Bills then scored three touchdowns after halftime.

Trends to watch

  • Allen spread it around: Kincaid had 86 yards, Moore 82 and Shakir 64. That makes any single Buffalo receiver line a volume question week to week.
  • Buffalo ran it 41 times for 146 yards, with Cook getting 21 carries. When the Bills lead early, the run game eats the clock.
  • Baltimore's passing offense finished with 68 net yards after 4 sacks. Receiver unders on that side stay worth checking.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these bets? Start with alt lines, the moneyline or our NFL hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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