Texans vs. Colts Recap: Shrader's 53-Yarder Wins It Late

Indianapolis beat Houston 19-17 on a 53-yard Spencer Shrader field goal with 16 seconds left. Houston had just taken its only lead of the day, 17-16, on a 1-yard Woody Marks run at 1:48. Shrader accounted for 13 of the Colts' 19 points with four field goals and an extra point. The Colts outgained Houston 300-223 but turned it over three times, including an interception at the Houston 1 and a sack-fumble that set up the Marks touchdown. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Colts +6.5: CASHED

• Our read: Houston was 0-2 and playing without WR Nico Collins, DE Jadeveon Clowney and G Ed Ingram. The main line was Houston -1.5, and the alt covered everything but a Colts loss by 7 or more.
• What happened: The Colts won outright, so +6.5 covered by 8.5. Houston's biggest lead all day was one point, so the alt was never in danger. Houston finished with 223 yards and went 4 of 11 on third down.
• Worth watching: The injury read held up. In a game decided by a field goal in the last minute, the cushion is what let this one sit comfortably the whole way.

Josh Downs over 49.5 receiving yards (-110): CASHED

• Our read: With Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin out, Downs was the top Colts target. He had 72 yards on 7 catches the week before and 61 in his last game against Houston.
• What happened: He caught 5 of 11 targets for 77 yards, 27.5 over the line. He had 72 yards early in the second quarter on catches of 24, 18, 18 and 12, all on drives that ended in points. After that he had one 5-yard catch, and Daniel Jones' interception at the Houston 1 was thrown his way.
• Worth watching: This one carried a confidence of 61, so it was a long shot that landed. His 11 targets confirm he's the first read with Pierce and Dulin out, and the line was cleared before halftime.

How the game played out

C.J. Stroud went 16 of 27 passing, 167 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Houston's defense made the game close. Jones fumbled on a Will Anderson Jr. sack with 4:45 left, and Houston went 54 yards for the go-ahead score after recovering it. Anderson finished with 2.5 sacks. Reed Blankenship had the interception at the 1. Jonathan Taylor carried 23 times for just 68 yards, and the Colts went 1 of 3 in the red zone.

Trends to watch

• Downs saw 11 targets with Pierce and Dulin out. His yardage line stays on our list while they're sidelined.
• Houston's passing game without Collins produced 167 yards on 27 attempts, and Houston had the ball for only 24:47. Its pass catchers' volume is worth checking before backing any of them.
• Shrader made kicks from 39, 58, 37 and 53 yards. When the Colts stall in the red zone, he turns drives into points.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, implied probability and more NFL recaps.