DARIMARKET
NHL · Game recap · Fri, Oct 2

Blues vs. Stars Recap: Hofer Shutout Cashes Three Unders

Final · St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars
Blues 4, Stars 0
Board plays on this game
3 of 5 hit. We post the misses too.

The St. Louis Blues shut out the Dallas Stars 4-0 on Friday night. Joel Hofer stopped all 25 shots he faced, and the Blues never trailed. Mason McTavish scored 1:34 into the 1st on a snap shot, and Dalibor Dvorsky made it 2-0 at 13:05 of the 2nd. Jimmy Snuggerud and Pius Suter then added empty-netters 15 seconds apart late in the 3rd, with Hofer picking up an assist on Suter's goal. Dallas held a 25-24 edge in shots on goal, and neither team scored on four power-play chances apiece. Jake Oettinger made 20 saves on 22 shots for Dallas. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Miro Heiskanen under 2.5 shots on goal (-150 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Heiskanen stayed at 2 or fewer shots in 73% of games last season, averaging 1.92 a game, so we liked the under at 2.5. - What happened: Heiskanen finished with 1 shot on goal in 26:45 of ice time, including 5:40 on the power play. That landed 1.5 shots under the line. He also blocked 4 shots and was a -2. - Worth watching: He logged big minutes and heavy power-play time and still put just one puck on net. If the price stays in a similar range, the under on his shot line is worth another look.

Robert Thomas under 1.5 shots on goal (-120 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Thomas stayed at 1 or fewer shots in 61% of games last season (1.59 a game) while averaging a point a game as a pass-first center. That profile pointed to the under. - What happened: Thomas did not register a shot on goal in 22:59 of ice time, with 4:37 on the power play. He finished 1.5 shots under the line and was a +1. This was a longer shot that landed. - Worth watching: Zero shots in nearly 23 minutes fits the pass-first read. A low shot line on a playmaking center is an angle worth tracking, as long as the price holds.

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Joel Hofer under 26.5 saves (-115 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Dallas averaged 25.3 shots per game last season, 3rd-fewest in the NHL, and Hofer averaged 24.7 saves a start. A save line at 26.5 sat above both numbers. - What happened: Hofer made 25 saves on 25 shots for the shutout, 1.5 saves under the line. Dallas put 7 shots on him in the 1st, 10 in the 2nd and 8 in the 3rd. This was another longer shot that landed. - Worth watching: Dallas' shot total landed right around last season's average. When a save line sits above a team's typical shot volume, the under is worth a look, but one busy period can swing it.

How the game played out

St. Louis outshot Dallas 11-7 in the 1st and took the early lead on the McTavish goal. Dallas pushed in the 2nd with 10 shots to the Blues' 5, but Dvorsky's goal doubled the lead anyway. The 3rd was even at 8 shots each, and the two empty-net goals came at 17:37 and 17:52. Dallas won 62.1% of the faceoffs and blocked 19 shots, but could not beat Hofer.

Trends to watch

  • Heiskanen played 26:45 with 5:40 on the power play and turned it into one shot on goal and four blocks.
  • Thomas logged 22:59 and 4:37 on the power play without a shot on goal. His minutes are high, but his game runs through passing.
  • Neither power play scored on four chances. Special teams were quiet on both sides, so every goal before the empty-netters came at even strength.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More at NHL picks, NHL recaps and our player prop glossary entry.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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