Lightning vs. Islanders Recap: Hagel Hat Trick, Schaefer Shots Cash

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 5-3 on Saturday night, and it took two late goals from Brandon Hagel to settle it. Tampa Bay built a 2-0 lead in the 1st on goals from Jake Guentzel and Hagel. The Islanders answered three times in the 2nd, the last a Brayden Schenn power-play tip-in at 19:53, to send it to the 3rd tied 3-3. Hagel then scored at 18:16 of the 3rd for the go-ahead goal and added an empty-netter at 18:37 to finish a hat trick. Shots on goal were close, 26 for Tampa Bay and 23 for New York. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 20 saves on 23 shots. Ilya Sorokin made 21 saves on 25. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Matthew Schaefer 2+ shots on goal (-330 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Schaefer had put 2 or more shots on goal in all 4 games this season, and he cleared that mark in 61 of 82 games last season. Volume from the Islanders blue line was the angle. - What happened: Schaefer finished with 8 shots on goal, 6.5 over the 1.5 line, in 27:07 of ice time (23:52 at even strength, 3:15 on the power play). He also picked up the primary assist on Jean-Gabriel Pageau's goal at 11:41 of the 2nd, which cut the lead to 3-2. His 8 shots were the most of any skater on either team. - Worth watching: He is playing big minutes, nearly 24 of them at even strength, and the shots follow the ice time. The price is steep at -330, so this angle is better as a parlay leg or at a modest stake than as a big single.

Nikita Kucherov under 3.5 shots on goal (-170 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Kucherov had stayed under 3.5 shots on goal in all 4 games this season and in 52 of 76 games last season. We leaned under on that shot volume. - What happened: Kucherov had 1 shot on goal, 2.5 under the line, in 17:46 of ice time with 5:23 on the power play. His impact came through 2 assists: one on Guentzel's power-play goal at 7:54 of the 2nd and one on Hagel's empty-netter at 18:37 of the 3rd. - Worth watching: This matched our pregame read. He gets heavy power-play time but sets up shooters more than he shoots. The under stays worth a look while that holds and the price sits near -170.

How the game played out

The 2nd period was the swing. New York scored three times in it, from Tony DeAngelo at even strength, Pageau at even strength and Schenn on the power play, and Tampa Bay's only reply was Guentzel's power-play goal. Both teams scored once on the power play, Tampa Bay on 4 chances and New York on 2. The 3rd stayed tied until Hagel scored late, then he hit the empty net 21 seconds later.

Trends to watch

• Schaefer logged 27:07, and his 8 shots made up more than a third of the Islanders' 23. That kind of share keeps his shot props in play.
• Two Tampa Bay forwards drove the scoring. Hagel had 3 goals and 1 assist on 6 shots, and Guentzel had 2 goals on 4 shots with 5:36 on the power play.
• Both goalies saw light workloads. Vasilevskiy faced 23 shots and Sorokin faced 25, so neither save total was high in a game with 8 goals.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on how we read these: NHL board, NHL recaps, and what a player prop is.