Penguins vs. Canadiens Recap: Anderson, Kindel and Karlsson Cash
Montreal beat Pittsburgh 5-4 in regulation on Saturday night, and it took every one of those five goals. The Penguins struck first on an Erik Karlsson power-play slap shot at 2:08 of the 1st, but Montreal answered twice in the next 57 seconds through Oliver Kapanen and Josh Anderson. Tommy Novak tied it 2-2 at 7:28. The Canadiens then scored twice in 27 seconds early in the 2nd to go up 4-2, Anderson's tip-in at 13:06 made it 5-3, and Sidney Crosby's goal at 16:49 of the 3rd only got Pittsburgh within one. The Penguins outshot Montreal 29-27, but Montreal blocked 22 shots and Jacob Fowler made 25 saves. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
ALT: Josh Anderson 2+ shots on goal (-110 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Anderson had cleared 2+ shots on goal in 8 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20. At -110 the book implied about 52%, while his recent games pointed closer to 72%. - What happened: Anderson finished with 2 shots on goal, 2 goals and an assist in 14:58. Both shots went in: a snap shot at 3:05 of the 1st and a tip-in at 13:06 of the 2nd that made it 5-3. That cleared the 1.5 line by 0.5. - Worth watching: He got there on just 2 shots, so this one had no cushion. The price was the edge here, and that is the part to check next time.
Ben Kindel 2+ shots on goal (-178 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Kindel had 2+ shots in 9 of 10 games this season, averaging 2.5 per game, including 4 of his last 5. - What happened: Kindel put 3 shots on goal in 16:48, with 1:37 on the power play. He had no points, but the volume cleared the 1.5 line by 1.5. - Worth watching: The shots keep coming even on a night he does not score. With some power-play time in the mix, the shot floor looks steady, though at -178 the price is steep.
Erik Karlsson 1+ points (-145 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Karlsson came in with 13 points in 13 games and a point in 10 of 13, playing 24 minutes a night with Rust out. - What happened: Karlsson had a goal and two assists for 3 points, plus 4 shots on goal in 23:37, with 3:07 on the power play. He scored the opening power-play goal at 2:08 of the 1st, set up Rickard Rakell at 3:45 of the 2nd, and assisted on Crosby's goal at 16:49 of the 3rd. That cleared the 0.5 line by 2.5, and the line was settled 128 seconds into the game. - Worth watching: He is logging heavy minutes and real power-play time. As long as that role holds, his point prop stays on our radar.
How the game played out
The 2nd period swung it. Alexandre Texier scored at 1:54 and Chris Kreider followed at 2:21, turning a 2-2 game into a two-goal Montreal lead. Rakell got one back at 3:45, but Anderson's tip-in at 13:06 restored the cushion. Special teams were close: Pittsburgh scored once on three power plays, and Montreal went without a power-play goal on three chances. Sergei Murashov stopped 22 of 27 shots for Pittsburgh.
Trends to watch
- Karlsson's minutes: 23:37 of ice time and 3:07 on the power play, with a power-play goal. His usage is the base of the points angle.
- Montreal's shot blocking: the Canadiens blocked 22 shots to Pittsburgh's 9. That can cap Penguins shot props, even on a night Kindel still got to 3.
- Anderson's efficiency: 2 goals on 2 shots is not a repeatable rate. For his shot prop, the shot count is what matters.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more, see our NHL board, the NHL recaps, and our guide to the player prop and implied probability.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.