Predators vs. Maple Leafs Recap: Leafs Win in OT as 3 Plays Cash

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Nashville Predators 5-4 in overtime, and they had to climb out of a 3-0 hole to do it. Nashville scored twice in the 1st, a Steven Stamkos power-play goal at 7:13 and a Nils Hoglander backhand at 9:08, then Hoglander struck again 3:03 into the 2nd. Toronto scored three times in the 2nd around another Stamkos goal, and Jack Roslovic tied it 4-4 at 8:54 of the 3rd. Auston Matthews ended it 4:46 into overtime. Toronto outshot Nashville 37-25 and won 64.2% of faceoffs. Juuse Saros made 32 saves on 37 shots for Nashville, and Anthony Stolarz made 21 saves on 25 shots for Toronto. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 4.5 total goals (alt): CASHED - Our read: The main total was 5.5 and shaded to the over, and Toronto allowed 299 goals last season, the most among the teams playing that night. We played the alt number a full goal below the main line. - What happened: The teams combined for 9 goals, 4.5 over the line. It cashed on the fifth goal, William Nylander's power-play goal at 6:58 of the 2nd, and the scoring kept coming from there. - Worth watching: Saros finished at .865 and Stolarz at .840. When a main total is shaded to the over, the lower alt over is worth a look, as long as the price stays inside the range we post.

William Nylander 1+ points (-195 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Nylander had 79 points in 65 games last season, with a point in 71% of them, and came in with 3 points in 3 games this season. - What happened: 1 G, 2 A, 1 SOG and a plus-2 in 22:48, with 4:14 on the power play. His power-play goal at 6:58 of the 2nd cashed it early, and he added assists on Roslovic's tying goal and the Matthews overtime winner. That is 3 points, 2.5 over the line. - Worth watching: He logged 4:14 of power-play time while Matthews had 4:13. That role keeps his point floor high, but the price was already near our pass mark of -200.

John Tavares 1+ points (-140 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Tavares had 71 points last season with a point in 62% of games, and Max Domi being on long-term IR kept him in a top-six role. At 62 confidence, this was a longer shot that landed. - What happened: 1 G, 0 A and 6 SOG in 18:46, with 3:40 on the power play. His goal at 4:56 of the 2nd, set up by Gavin McKenna and Stolarz, was Toronto's first of the night and put them on the board down 3-1. One point, 0.5 over the line. - Worth watching: Six shots on goal led Toronto, and he won 16 faceoffs while losing only 1. That usage is worth tracking at prices near -140; we pass past -150.

How the game played out

The 2nd period swung it. Nashville led 3-0 early in the frame, then Tavares and Nylander scored 2:02 apart to make it 3-2. Stamkos restored a two-goal lead at 13:30, but McKenna answered 61 seconds later. Matthews had a hand in every Toronto goal from that point on, with assists on McKenna and Roslovic and the winner in overtime. He finished with 1 goal and 3 assists.

Special teams were close. Nashville scored on its only power play, and Toronto scored once on three chances.

Trends to watch

• Toronto's top power-play minutes among forwards went to Marchenko 4:16, Nylander 4:14 and Matthews 4:13. Props on those three get real power-play volume.
• Tavares put 6 shots on goal and won 94.1% of his draws. Shot volume like that supports point and shot props for him.
• Saros faced 37 shots and allowed 5. That shot volume against him is worth noting the next time a Nashville total is posted.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More NHL coverage lives at /nhl and /recaps/nhl. New to alt totals? Start with our alt line guide and the player prop guide.