What is a prop hit rate? How it's calculated, with a real example

A prop hit rate is the percentage of a player's games in which he reached a stat threshold: games cleared divided by games played. If a running back gained 60 or more yards in 7 of 8 games, his hit rate at 60+ is 7 of 8, or 87.5%.

It is a record of what already happened, not a forecast. Treat it as the first question to ask about a number, never the last.

The formula

Hit rate = games that reached the number ÷ games in the sample × 100.

Three pieces matter every time: the stat (rushing plus receiving yards, points, shots on goal), the threshold (60+, 25+, 3+) and the sample (this season, last 10, last 5). Change any one and the rate changes. A hit rate with no sample size beside it is incomplete.

A worked example with real games

Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams has played 8 games in 2026. His rushing plus receiving yards, from ESPN box scores, were 65, 97, 158, 147, 76, 67, 121 and 59 (September 11 through November 1). Here is the same eight-game log at four thresholds.

| Threshold (rush + rec yards) | Games cleared | Hit rate | |---|---|---| | 40+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | | 60+ | 7 of 8 | 87.5% | | 80+ | 4 of 8 | 50% | | 100+ | 3 of 8 | 37.5% |

His season average is 98.75 yards, but that is the point: the average sits near 100 while the 100+ hit rate is only 37.5%. Three huge games (158, 147, 121) pull the average up. The hit rate at 60+ describes the typical game far better than the average does. The 59-yard game on November 1 is the lone miss at 60+, one yard short.

On November 8, DraftKings listed that 60+ market at -377. Converting a price to a percentage is its own skill (see implied probability explained); -377 works out to 79.0%. The 87.5% hit rate sits above it, but eight games is a small sample, so that gap is a conversation starter, not an answer.

Last 5, last 10 and this season

• This season shows the player's real role and usage right now, which matters most early in a year.
• Last 10 smooths out a single outlier game. Early in a season it may reach into last year, so check the dates.
• Last 5 shows recent form but swings hard on one big or small game. Kyren's last five (147, 76, 67, 121, 59) cleared 60+ in 4 of 5, or 80%.

When all three agree, the picture is steady. When they disagree, look at why: an injury, a role change or one outlier. More on this in last 5 vs last 10 hit rates.

What a hit rate leaves out

Opponent, game script, injuries to teammates, weather and minutes all shape a game. A 7 of 8 can still fall to 7 of 9 tonight. Pair the rate with context: today's injury report on ESPN, the matchup and the price. DARIMARKET shows hit rates for every listed player on the hit-rates page, updated with each game.

Quick check before you trust any hit rate

1. Does it show the sample (8 of 8, not just 100%)? 2. Is it this season, or padded with old games? 3. Was the player healthy and in the same role for those games? 4. Is the threshold the one on the board right now?

Another common question: What is the difference between a hit rate and an average?

An average blends every game, so a few huge ones lift it. A hit rate counts how often the player cleared one specific number. Kyren Williams averages 98.75 yards, but his 100+ hit rate is 3 of 8.

Keep going: player hit rates, tonight's slate, the bankroll guide and the unit-size table.

21+. Education, not advice. Research, not picks: past results only, and prices move, so check FanDuel or DraftKings for the live number. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

See every player's hit rates free for 24 hours at darimarket.us.

FAQ

What is a good prop hit rate? There is no single number. A rate only means something against the price and the sample: 7 of 8 at a low threshold can be fairly priced already, while 5 of 6 at a high threshold may stand out. Compare the hit rate with the implied probability of the price.

How many games do you need for a hit rate to be reliable? More is better. Under about 10 games a rate swings with every result, so read it as a description of recent games, not a stable truth. Combine this season with the last 10 and the last 5.

Is a hit rate the same as a win probability? No. A hit rate counts past games at one threshold. A probability is a forecast that must account for tonight's opponent, role and injuries. A hit rate is an input to that thinking, not the forecast itself.