Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt Recap: Razorbacks Win 31-21, Four Plays Cash
Arkansas won 31-21 at Vanderbilt in a game that was tied three times. Vanderbilt led 14-7 late in the second quarter before Cam Settles tied it with 38 seconds left in the half, and the teams traded touchdowns until Settles scored again with 9 seconds left in the third quarter to put Arkansas ahead for good. Arkansas did not turn the ball over, while Vanderbilt threw two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
KJ Jackson under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-188 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Jackson had stayed under 1.5 passing touchdowns in 9 of his last 10, averaging 0.9 a game, and the Arkansas offense leans on his legs. - What happened: Jackson went 21-of-31 passing with 251 yards and 0 touchdowns. All four Arkansas touchdowns came on the ground or on defense: Joker Johnson's 25-yard interception return, two Settles runs, and Jackson's own 8-yard run in the third quarter. - Worth watching: Jackson threw for 251 yards and still found the end zone only with his feet. Arkansas ran 41 times for 187 yards and scored all three of its offensive touchdowns on runs, which is what makes his passing TD unders interesting.
ALT: Over 39.5 total points (-360 FanDuel / -369 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Vanderbilt home games and Arkansas road games had gone over this number 13 of 15 times, and the main total was 49.5, so the alt sat 10 points below it. - What happened: The game finished with 52 points, 12.5 over the line. Makhilyn Young's 3-yard touchdown run midway through the third quarter tied it 21-21 and pushed the total past 39.5. - Worth watching: Both offenses gained at least 390 total yards. A low alt with 10 points of room handles a slow start like the scoreless first 14 minutes here.
Junior Sherrill 70+ receiving yards (-168 DraftKings / -160 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Sherrill led Vanderbilt with 33 catches for 529 yards and had 70+ in 9 of his last 10. The main line was 78.5, so 70 bought 8 yards of cushion. - What happened: Sherrill caught 8 passes for 99 yards, 29.5 over the line, including a 24-yard touchdown from Jared Curtis late in the second quarter. - Worth watching: No other Vanderbilt receiver had more than 3 catches. Sherrill's share of the targets makes his yardage overs worth a look again.
ALT: Arkansas over 14.5 team total points (-330 DraftKings / -340 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Arkansas had scored 15+ in 8 of its last 10 games and 4 of 6 this season. - What happened: Arkansas scored 31 and cleared by 16.5. Settles' 11-yard run with 38 seconds left in the half made it 14-14 and put the team total over. - Worth watching: Arkansas went 8 of 16 on third down and held the ball for 33:47. That kind of control supports a low team total even when the offense does not hit big plays.
How the game played out
Curtis threw for 274 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions for Vanderbilt. Arkansas closed it with a 9-play drive that ended in Max Gilbert's 39-yard field goal with 24 seconds left, after Miguel Mitchell intercepted Curtis to end a 14-play Vanderbilt drive in the fourth quarter.
Trends to watch
- Settles had 11 carries for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Braylen Russell had 14 carries. Settles got both short scoring runs.
- Antonio Jordan led Arkansas with 5 catches for 74 yards, as Jackson spread 21 completions around.
- Sedrick Alexander and Young both scored for Vanderbilt on 10 and 9 carries, so the backfield work is split.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about totals and player props, or see today's college football board.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.