Florida St vs. Miami Recap: Miami Wins in 2OT, Team Total Cashes
Miami beat Florida State 43-35 in double overtime. The game was tied 28-28 at the end of regulation after Ashton Daniels hit Duce Robinson for a 75-yard touchdown just 10 seconds after Miami had taken the lead. Both teams scored in the first overtime, then Darian Mensah found Malachi Toney from 3 yards out in the second, Toney threw the two-point conversion to Cooper Barkate, and Florida State's final drive ended in an interception. Miami outgained Florida State 583 to 443 and held the ball for 37:20. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
ALT: Miami over 31.5 team total points (-280 DraftKings / -290 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Miami had scored 32+ in 9 straight games and was averaging 41.9 over its last 10. DraftKings implied 38.5, the 2nd-highest team total on the slate. - What happened: Miami finished with 43, 11.5 over the line, but it needed overtime to get there. The Hurricanes had 28 at the end of regulation, then Javian Mallory's 25-yard run in the first overtime made it 35 and cleared the number. - Worth watching: Miami ran for 257 yards on 44 carries and converted 8 of 15 third downs, so the offense moved the ball all night. Three Miami drives in the third quarter ended on downs or an interception, which is why this one got tight late.
Ashton Daniels 30+ rushing yards (-120 DraftKings / -160 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Daniels had 30+ rushing yards in 9 of his last 10 with 323 rush yards and 10 rush touchdowns on the year. With Florida State a 19.5-point underdog, we expected scrambles and designed QB runs. - What happened: Daniels ran 9 times for 31 yards, clearing by one yard. His long was 14, and he scored on a 2-yard run with 1:40 left in the second quarter to tie it 14-14. - Worth watching: This one landed with almost no room, so the price matters. Daniels threw for 298 yards and 4 touchdowns, and when he is moving the ball through the air his carries can dry up. A lower alt rung is the safer way to play his legs.
How the game played out
Mensah completed 23 of 34 passes for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Toney caught 11 balls for 154 yards and 2 scores. Mallory ran 13 times for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. For Florida State, Robinson caught 5 passes for 113 yards and both of his touchdowns came in the last 2:39 of regulation and the first overtime. Quintrevion Wisner added 63 rushing yards and a 28-yard touchdown catch.
Trends to watch
- Toney drew a heavy share of Mensah's work with 11 catches. His reception and yardage props are worth a look against secondaries that cannot match him.
- Mallory averaged 8.3 yards per carry while Mark Fletcher Jr. took 16 carries. Watch how Miami splits the backfield before betting either back's yardage.
- Robinson's 75-yard score shows how quickly Daniels can push the ball downfield. His receiving overs carry big-play upside.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about team totals and player props, or see today's college football board.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.