Jax State vs. New Mexico St Recap: 24-0 Shutout, Two Plays Cash

Jacksonville State shut out New Mexico State 24-0. The first quarter was scoreless, and the only points of the first half came on a 3-yard Caden Creel run early in the second quarter. In the third, Garrison Rippa hit a 49-yard field goal and Jalen Likely punched in a 1-yard run to cap a two-play, 85-yard drive. Creel added a 29-yard touchdown pass to Luke Gilbert with 4:48 left. Creel ran 21 times for 211 yards with a long of 84, and the Gamecocks piled up 324 rushing yards on 46 carries. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Jacksonville State over 19.5 points (-390 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Jacksonville State had scored 20+ in six straight and in 7 of its last 8 road games, New Mexico State had allowed 20+ in 8 of 10, and the main team total was 26.5.
• What happened: The Gamecocks finished with 24, 4.5 over the line. They sat at 17 after Likely's score late in the third, and the 12-play, 87-yard drive that ended with the Gilbert touchdown pushed them past it.
• Worth watching: Two interceptions and a turnover on downs ended Gamecocks drives, so the 433 yards turned into points slowly. At -390 the price leaves little room for a night like that.

James Jones 70+ rushing yards (-350 at FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Jones had cleared 70+ in five straight and 8 of his last 10, averaging 104.7 yards over his last 10 and 140.7 over his last 3 on 20.7 carries a game. The FanDuel main line was 102.5.
• What happened: He ran 20 times for 112 yards with a long of 21, 42.5 over the line. That came in a game his team never scored.
• Worth watching: His 20 carries were right in line with the 20.7 a game from our read, even as New Mexico State was shut out. When a back's workload is that steady, a line well below his main number has a big cushion, though the price reflects it.

How the game played out

New Mexico State's opening drive went 18 plays and 78 yards and ended in a missed field goal, and a second try later missed too. The Aggies threw for just 29 yards on 6-of-19 passing, so their 192 rushing yards were nearly all of their 221 total. Jacksonville State held the ball for 35:18 and outgained them 433 to 221.

Trends to watch

• Jacksonville State ran for 7.0 yards a carry, with Creel accounting for 211 of the 324. His rushing volume is the engine of this offense.
• New Mexico State leaned on Jones and TJ Washington Jr., who added 70 yards on 10 carries. With the passing game this thin, the backs get the work.
• The Gamecocks needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to clear their alt total. Even a low team number can come down to one drive.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see alt line and implied probability, or get more at /cfb.