Kennesaw St vs. MTSU Recap: Owls Pull Away 44-28, Three Plays Cash

Kennesaw State beat Middle Tennessee 44-28. The teams traded touchdowns for a 7-7 first quarter, and Antonio Martin's 7-yard run put MTSU up 14-7 early in the second. Rickie Collins answered with touchdown passes of 23 yards to Davis Bryson and 31 yards to Dylan Gary, and a 45-yard Dominic Bourgeois field goal at the end of the half made it 19-17. Tywon Christopher's 59-yard interception return opened the third quarter scoring, and Kennesaw State pulled away with 17 points in the fourth before Santana Fleming's 100-yard kickoff return set the final. Collins completed 16-of-19 passes and threw for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 43.5 total points (-244 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Games involving these two teams had gone over 43.5 in 16 of the last 20, and the main total was 50.5, 7 points higher. The last two meetings were low at 19 and 40, which is why our confidence sat below the model's 69 percent.
• What happened: The game finished at 72 points, 28.5 over the line. It crossed 43.5 early in the third quarter, when the pick-six and its two-point conversion made it 27-17.
• Worth watching: Two return touchdowns, with their two-point conversions, accounted for 16 points. Even without them the game would have cleared, and buying the total down 7 points is what built that cushion.

ALT: Antonio Martin 30+ rushing yards (-162 at FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Martin had cleared 30+ rushing yards in 8 of his last 10 games and 8 of his last 12. At -162 the price implied 62 percent against about 70 percent from recent games.
• What happened: He ran 18 times for 106 yards with a long of 20 and the 7-yard touchdown, 76.5 over the line.
• Worth watching: MTSU ran 45 times and held the ball for 40:19. When the Blue Raiders lean on the run like that, a low rushing alt for their lead back has room.

Javon Rogers 30+ receiving yards (-230 at FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Rogers had cleared 30 receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5, averaging 50.1 over his last 10 and 52 over his last 3. The FanDuel main line was 42.5.
• What happened: He caught 3 passes for 47 yards with a long of 33, 17.5 over the line.
• Worth watching: Collins threw only 19 passes, so every target mattered. His 33-yard catch did most of the work.

How the game played out

MTSU won the yardage, 380 to 318, and converted 11-of-20 on third down while Kennesaw State went 2-of-10. The difference was turnovers and big plays. Roman Gagliano threw 2 interceptions on 43 attempts, one of them returned for a score, and Gary turned his 2 catches into 59 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Trends to watch

• Kennesaw State averaged 10.8 yards per pass attempt on a small sample of 19 throws. Its receivers' yardage props depend on how many chances they get.
• Martin carried 18 times in an offense that ran 45 times. His workload is the base for his rushing lines.
• The two return touchdowns and their conversions made up 16 of the 72 points. Scores like that can swing a total on their own.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see total and alt line, or get more at /cfb.