Missouri vs. Mississippi St Recap: Taylor and Bothwell Win It Late

Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24 in a game that swung three times. The Bulldogs led 14-0 after one quarter on two Kamario Taylor touchdown passes. Missouri then scored 24 of the next 27 points and led 24-17 late in the third. Mississippi State answered with a 14-play, 73-yard drive capped by Fluff Bothwell's 4-yard run, then a 5-play, 85-yard drive that ended with Sanfrisco Magee's 24-yard catch at 3:57. Missouri's next drive ended on downs. Nine DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Jamal Roberts 70+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Roberts was running for 100 yards a game on 21 carries, and the main line was 106.5. Called by Darius.
• What happened: 26 carries for 95 yards, long of 14, clearing 69.5 by 25.5.
• Worth watching: The workload held, and the alt left room for 3.7 yards a carry. That is the shape of a lead-back alt worth another look.

ALT: Jamal Roberts 50+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Ahmad Hardy and Malae Fonoti were out, leaving Roberts as the lead back with only Xai'Shaun Edwards behind him.
• What happened: Same 95 yards, 45.5 clear. Edwards got 6 carries.
• Worth watching: With a backfield this thin, the low alt is the cleanest way to back the lead runner.

ALT: Jamal Roberts 18+ rush attempts (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: He had 28 carries at Kansas and 22 against Troy, and Edwards had 3 carries the week before.
• What happened: 26 attempts, 8.5 over. He took 26 of Missouri's 35 rushes.
• Worth watching: Attempts don't depend on yards per carry, which made this the steadiest Roberts angle.

ALT: Over 49.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: The main total was 58.5, both teams were 3-0, and Mississippi State had just won 41-34. Nine points of cushion.
• What happened: 55 points, 5.5 over. At 24-24 with 7:09 left it sat at 48; Magee's touchdown put it over.
• Worth watching: The cushion under the main number is what made this one comfortable. Alt totals well below the market are worth a look in games priced as shootouts.

ALT: Kamario Taylor 200+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Taylor had 354, 227 and 251 passing yards, and Anthony Evans III gave him a reliable target.
• What happened: 27 of 38 passing, 360 yards, 160.5 clear, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.
• Worth watching: His lowest game coming in was 227, so a 200 floor was sound.

ALT: Kamario Taylor 2+ passing TDs (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: He had 11 touchdown passes in three games (4, 3, 4), and the total pointed to a shootout.
• What happened: Three: 43 and 24 yards to Magee and 11 yards to Bothwell.
• Worth watching: Two was below every game he had played this year, and he cleared it again.

ALT: Anthony Evans III 5+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Evans averaged 6.7 catches a game, and WR Ayden Williams was out.
• What happened: 8 catches for 114 yards, 3.5 over. His 48-yard catch set up the winning touchdown.
• Worth watching: He led his team in catches and yards. His catch props stay on the board while the targets stay this concentrated.

ALT: Donovan Olugbode 3+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Olugbode averaged 5.3 catches a game, in a game with a 58.5 total.
• What happened: 4 catches for 54 yards and a 9-yard touchdown, 1.5 over. Cayden Lee took the lead role with 11 catches for 156 yards and two scores.
• Worth watching: It cleared by one catch. With Lee this involved, a lower alt is the safer way to play Olugbode.

ALT: Fluff Bothwell 60+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Bothwell ran 18-113 and 21-115 in his last two, and Mississippi State was a 5.5-point home favorite.
• What happened: 25 carries for 122 yards, 62.5 clear, plus 6 catches for 55 yards and two touchdowns.
• Worth watching: He had 25 of his team's 40 rushes. That share is the reason to keep looking at his yardage alts.

How the game played out

Austin Simmons completed 23 of 39 passes for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Missouri didn't turn it over. Missouri's problem was finishing: a 14-play drive that ended with no points, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 8 penalties for 91 yards.

Trends to watch

• Roberts had 26 carries with only Edwards behind him. His attempts and low alts are the way to play that workload.
• Taylor threw 38 times for 360 yards and 3 scores. He has now thrown for 200+ yards in all four games.
• Bothwell had 25 carries and 6 catches. His yardage alts stay on the board.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the total and the player prop.