New Mexico vs. Nevada Recap: Lobos Defense Rolls in 31-3 Win
New Mexico beat Nevada 31-3 on the road on Friday night. The Lobos scored two touchdowns in the first quarter, led 14-3 at the half and shut the Wolf Pack out after the break. New Mexico ran 45 times for 213 yards and held the ball for 38:36. Nevada finished with 97 total yards, minus 9 on the ground, and went 2 of 15 on third down. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
ALT: New Mexico over 20.5 points (-210 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: New Mexico had scored 21 or more in five straight, in 8 of its last 10 and in 7 of 8 this season. The main team total was 24.5 as a 10-point road favorite. - What happened: New Mexico scored 31 and cleared the line by 10.5. The Lobos reached 21 on Scottre Humphrey's 1-yard run at 8:45 of the third quarter, a 3-play, 5-yard drive after a Nevada fumble. A Cade Keith touchdown catch and a Nick Romero field goal followed in the fourth. - Worth watching: The offense punted on three straight drives from late in the first quarter through the second. The defense and a short field still got the Lobos over.
ALT: New Mexico -3.5 (-251 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: New Mexico had covered -3.5 in five straight, in 9 of its last 10 and in 7 of 8 this season. The main line was -10, so this alt only needed a 4-point win. - What happened: New Mexico won by 28 and covered the alt by 24.5. The Lobos led by at least 11 from the end of the first quarter on. - Worth watching: Nevada managed 6 first downs all night. When the defense controls a game like this, a short alt spread has a lot of room.
ALT: Kiefer Sibley 40+ rushing yards (-400 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Sibley had 40 or more rushing yards in 7 of 8 games this season, including 87, 91 and 102 over the last three weeks. His main line was 65.5 with New Mexico a 10-point favorite. - What happened: 12 carries for 54 yards and a 31-yard touchdown run late in the first quarter. He cleared the alt by 14.5. - Worth watching: Humphrey got more work, with 17 carries for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sibley still cleared, but the carries split matters for his yardage.
How the game played out
Humphrey scored from 2 yards on the opening drive, and Sibley's long run made it 14-0. Nevada's only points came on a 32-yard Jacob Fernandez field goal at the end of an 11-play, 74-yard drive just before the half. Toa Fa'avae completed 14 of 20 passes for 150 yards and the 25-yard touchdown to Keith. New Mexico did not turn the ball over.
Trends to watch
- Nevada quarterback AJ Bianco completed 14 of 31 passes for 106 yards and lost a fumble. Nevada averaged 3.4 yards per pass attempt.
- Humphrey and Sibley combined for 29 carries, 161 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Lobos run game carries most of the load.
- New Mexico converted 9 of 16 third downs. Those conversions helped New Mexico control the clock.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on reading these prices: alternate lines, point spreads and our college football hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.