DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Fri, Nov 6

Nebraska vs. Illinois Recap: Houser and Dixon Lead Six Cashes

Final · Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois 24, Nebraska 13
Board plays on this game
6 of 7 hit. We post the misses too.

Illinois beat Nebraska 24-13 at home on Friday night as a home underdog. The game was scoreless after one quarter and tied 7-7 at the half. Katin Houser threw three touchdown passes, two of them to Collin Dixon, and the Illini scored on their first two drives of the second half to go up 21-7 early in the fourth. Nebraska outgained Illinois 426 to 376, but its two field goal tries did not go through and three drives ended on downs. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Katin Houser 220+ passing yards (+102 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Houser had cleared 220 passing yards in 8 of his last 10 games and 16 of his last 19. Plus money implied about 50 percent when his recent form ran closer to 78. - What happened: Completed 22 of 36 passes for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions. He cleared the alt by 72.5. - Worth watching: He averaged 8.1 yards per attempt while Illinois ran for only 84 yards. When the run game is quiet, his yardage carries the offense.

ALT: Anthony Colandrea 210+ passing yards (-154 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Colandrea had cleared 210 passing yards in 8 of his last 10 games and 16 of his last 20. The price implied 61 percent against about 76 from recent games. - What happened: Completed 32 of 43 passes for 284 yards and 1 touchdown with no interceptions, including a 51-yard score to Jacory Barney Jr. in the fourth. He cleared the alt by 74.5. - Worth watching: Nebraska threw 43 times and still held the ball for 31:57. That kind of volume keeps his yardage floor high.

ALT: Illinois over 16.5 points (-350 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Illinois had scored 17 or more in all 8 games this season and in 9 of its last 10. The main team total was 23.5, so the alt left a full touchdown of cushion. - What happened: Illinois scored 24, finishing 7.5 over the line. The Illini got past it at 21 on Dixon's second touchdown with 13:38 left. - Worth watching: Illinois finished just over its 23.5 main total as well. The alt bought room in a game that sat at 7-7 at the break.

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ALT: Illinois +10.5 (-260 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Illinois had covered +10.5 in 8 of its last 10 and 7 of 8 this season. As a 4-point home dog on the main line, +10.5 added 6.5 points of cushion. - What happened: Illinois won outright by 11, so the alt covered by 21.5. - Worth watching: Nebraska's only lead was 7-0 in the second quarter. The extra points were not needed this time, but they are the reason to play the alt.

ALT: Collin Dixon 60+ receiving yards (-290 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Dixon had 60 or more receiving yards in all 8 games this season and 9 of his last 10. His main line was 84.5, so 60 sat well below his usual output. - What happened: 8 catches for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a long of 58. He scored from 3 yards late in the second quarter and from 6 yards early in the fourth. He cleared the alt by 69.5. - Worth watching: He also beat his 84.5 main line. He caught 8 of Houser's 22 completions.

ALT: Hudson Clement 40+ receiving yards (-245 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Clement had 40 or more receiving yards in each of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10, averaging 75.3 over his last 3. Nebraska ranked 140th against receiving yards. At 64 confidence, this was a long shot that landed. - What happened: 5 catches for 87 yards with a long of 21. He cleared the alt by 47.5. - Worth watching: He averaged 17.4 yards per catch. He does not need much volume to clear a number like this.

How the game played out

Nebraska struck first on a 98-yard drive capped by Mekhi Nelson's 15-yard run midway through the second quarter. Illinois answered with a 73-yard drive and Dixon's first score. In the third, a 13-play, 75-yard Illini drive ended in Jordan Anderson's 5-yard catch. Nebraska cut it to 21-13 on the Barney touchdown, but the two-point try failed and Ethan Moczulski's 21-yard field goal closed it out. Neither team turned the ball over, and Nebraska was flagged 11 times for 82 yards.

Trends to watch

  • Houser and Colandrea both topped 280 passing yards. Both quarterback yardage alts cleared with room.
  • Dixon and Clement combined for 13 catches and 216 yards. Illinois leans on its top two receivers when the run game is slow.
  • Nebraska ran 31 times for 142 yards and still threw 43 passes. Its quarterback volume holds up even in a close game.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on reading these prices: alternate lines, implied probability and our college football hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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