Ohio State vs. USC Recap: King Miller Clears 70 as USC Wins

USC beat Ohio State 30-18. The Trojans struck fast, scoring on a 69-yard pass from Jayden Maiava to Trent Mosley on the second play of the opening drive, and led 20-9 at halftime. Ohio State outgained USC 464 to 338 and held the ball for 39:28, but its first four scores were Connor Hawkins field goals and it was flagged 11 times for 71 yards. The Buckeyes did not reach the end zone until 2:12 remained. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: King Miller 70+ rushing yards (+130 FanDuel / +143 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Miller had cleared 70 rushing yards in 7 of his last 10 games and 13 of his last 20. The best price, +143, implied about 41%, while his recent games pointed closer to 65%. That gap was the bet. - What happened: Miller ran 13 times for 78 yards and a touchdown, 8.5 over the 69.5 line. His long was 21 yards, and he capped a 3-play, 68-yard drive with a 1-yard score at 6:11 of the third quarter to make it 27-9. He also caught 2 passes for 8 yards. He did lose a fumble in the second quarter, but he still cleared the number. - Worth watching: Miller averaged 6.0 yards a carry even though USC ran only 27 times as a team. If he gets a bigger share of a normal workload, this number stays reachable, and plus money on it is worth checking.

ALT: USC +16.5 (-361 DraftKings / -370 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: USC had covered +16.5 in 9 of its last 10 games, 7 of 8 this season, and in each of its last 8 home games. The DraftKings main line was USC +6.5, so this alt added 10 points of cushion, and USC's average margin over its last 10 was +6.6. - What happened: USC did not need the points. The Trojans won outright by 12, so the alt cleared by 28.5. - Worth watching: Big alt cushions on a home team that rarely loses by much are expensive, but this one was never in doubt.

ALT: USC over 22.5 team points (-110 DraftKings / -113 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: USC had scored 23+ in 9 of its last 10, 7 of 8 this season, and in each of its last 8 home games. Outdoors it had hit 23+ in 18 of 20, averaging 35. - What happened: USC got to 20 by halftime on two touchdowns and two field goals, then Miller's third-quarter touchdown took it to 27 and over the line. Caden Chittenden added a 32-yard field goal late to finish at 30, 7.5 points over. - Worth watching: USC scored 30 while holding the ball for only 20:32. A home offense that can score on short drives makes a team total near the low 20s worth a look again.

How the game played out

Ohio State moved the ball well between the 20s. Bo Jackson ran 21 times for 121 yards and Jeremiah Smith caught 10 passes for 83 yards, but the Buckeyes settled for four field goals and lost a fumble to end a 63-yard drive in the third quarter. Luke Fahey's 1-yard touchdown pass to Smith cut it to 27-18, and the two-point try failed. Ohio State's last drive ended on downs.

Trends to watch

• Miller and Waymond Jordan split the USC backfield with 13 and 12 carries. Miller's 78 yards on that workload shows how efficient he can be.
• USC ran just 27 times and still scored 30. Its scoring did not depend on long possessions in this one.
• Ohio State converted 7 of 16 third downs and Hawkins made all four of his field goals. Those long drives kept ending short of the end zone, which kept the USC side comfortable.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more, read up on implied probability and the alt line, or visit the college football hub.