DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Fri, Nov 6

South Florida vs. East Carolina Recap: Crowther and USF +6.5 Cash

Final · South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates
East Carolina 20, South Florida 17
Board plays on this game
3 of 4 hit. We post the misses too.

East Carolina beat South Florida 20-17 at home on Friday night, and it took the last snap to decide it. Andrew Conrad hit a 55-yard field goal as time ran out. The game was tied 10-10 at the half after Landon Sides caught a 15-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left in the second quarter. Sides scored again in the third to put the Pirates up 17-10, and USF answered with a Jason Collins Jr. 1-yard run with 9:42 to play. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: East Carolina over 14.5 points (-220 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: East Carolina had scored 15 or more in five straight, in 9 of its last 10 and in 7 of 8 this season. As a 1.5-point home dog in a 39.5 total, the market had the Pirates near 19. - What happened: East Carolina scored 20. Emory Williams threw both touchdowns to Sides, Noah Perez added a 44-yard field goal and Conrad hit the 55-yarder at the end. The Pirates were already over the line at 17 after the third-quarter score, and they cleared it by 5.5. - Worth watching: They got there on 361 total yards and 6 of 15 on third down. The final number landed right around what the market implied.

ALT: D.J. Crowther 40+ rushing yards (-390 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Crowther had 40 or more rushing yards in 9 of his last 10, in 7 of 8 this season and in five straight. He leads USF with 578 yards and 8 touchdowns, and his main line was 64.5. - What happened: 17 carries for 111 yards, 6.5 per carry, with a long of 25. He also caught 3 passes for 42 yards. He cleared the alt by 71.5 and went well past his main line too. - Worth watching: He took 17 of the Bulls' 37 rushing attempts. When the offense stalls on third down, the carries still find him.

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ALT: South Florida +6.5 (-221 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: USF had covered +6.5 in 9 of its last 10 and 7 of 8 this season. The Bulls were a 1.5-point road favorite, so +6.5 added 8 points of cushion. - What happened: USF lost by 3 on the final kick and covered by 3.5. The Bulls never trailed by more than 7 at any point. - Worth watching: This is the kind of finish the extra points are for. A tight game that swings on one kick is still a cover with the alt.

How the game played out

Luke Kromenhoek completed 17 of 21 passes for 179 yards, and his 26-yard touchdown to Bryson Rodgers opened the scoring in the first quarter. Ashton Gray ran 18 times for 101 yards for East Carolina. USF went 1 of 10 on third down but held the ball for 31:17 and did not turn it over. The only turnover of the night was an East Carolina lost fumble that ended an 11-play drive in the first quarter.

Trends to watch

  • Sides caught 14 of East Carolina's 26 completions for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nobody else on the team had more than 7 catches.
  • Crowther topped 100 rushing yards on a night Kromenhoek threw only 21 passes. His floor is built on volume.
  • This game finished with 37 combined points against a 39.5 total. East Carolina's 361 total yards were the most either side managed.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on reading these prices: alternate lines, point spreads and our college football hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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