TCU vs. UCF Recap: Six Turnovers Keep the Under Safe

UCF beat TCU 21-13 with its backup quarterback, in a game that never got loose. Keyone Jenkins completed 19 of 20 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown, and TCU turned the ball over four times: two lost fumbles and two Jaden Craig interceptions. TCU outgained UCF 343 to 266 but ran for just 33 yards on 27 carries. After a 15-play field goal drive cut it to 14-13 in the third quarter, UCF answered with an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. TCU's last three drives ended in a field goal try that was no good, an interception and a fumble. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Under 55.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: UCF was down to its backup QB and its top three receivers. The main total was 48.5, so 55.5 gave us seven points of cushion.
• What happened: The teams combined for 34 points, 21.5 under the line. It would have cleared the main 48.5 by 14.5 too. Only 10 points were scored after halftime, and six of the game's drives ended in a turnover. UCF went 3 of 10 on third down and finished with 266 yards.
• Worth watching: A thin backup-QB offense plus a team that couldn't run the ball kept this one low. When one side is missing its quarterback and top receivers, the alt under with a touchdown of cushion is worth a look.

ALT: Kari Ashley 3+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: The TCU tight end averaged 5 catches and 74 yards a game, and TCU WR Cooper Reid was out.
• What happened: Ashley caught 4 passes for 43 yards with a long of 15, clearing 2.5 by 1.5. Craig threw 40 times and spread it around: Jeremy Payne had 6 catches, Jordan Dwyer had 100 yards on 5 catches and Jeremy Scott had 80 yards on 5. Ashley still got his catches.
• Worth watching: A low catch count on a steady tight end was the right size of alt for a spread-out passing game.

How the game played out

UCF didn't need much. Duke Watson ran 13 times for 57 yards, Taevion Swint scored from 13 yards out in the first quarter, and Jenkins hit Caden Piening for a 19-yard touchdown in the second. UCF lost two fumbles of its own, but Antione Jackson and Jayden Bellamy each picked off Craig. Craig still threw for 310 yards on 40 attempts, and TCU had the ball for 32:49. Landen Chambers' 1-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter was the last score of the game.

Trends to watch

• TCU ran for 33 yards on 27 carries. When the run game is that thin, Craig's passing volume is the TCU offense, and his yardage props stay in play.
• Jenkins was accurate on low volume: 20 attempts for 160 yards. A backup QB who manages the game keeps totals down without handing the other side short fields.
• TCU spread 40 throws across at least four receivers with 4 or more catches. Low alt catch lines fit that offense better than big ones.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the total, the alt line and the player prop, or head back to the college football hub.