Texas St vs. San Diego St Recap: Brad Jackson's 372 Yards and the Over

San Diego State beat Texas State 31-29 in a game the Bobcats controlled on paper and still lost. Texas State outgained the Aztecs 565 to 239 and held the ball for 40:33, but a 96-yard kickoff return, a pick-six and a goal-line stand flipped it. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all on the Texas State offense and the total.

What cashed

ALT: Brad Jackson 200+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Jackson had thrown for 268 and 244 the previous two weeks on barely 20 attempts each, and San Diego State had just allowed 41 to Toledo. - What happened: Jackson threw for 372 yards on 27-of-43 passing with 3 TDs and 2 INTs, clearing the line by 172.5. He also ran 22 times for 80 yards. Beau Sparks was his top target with 10 catches for 153 yards and the late 40-yard score. - Worth watching: Volume did the work here. When a trailing team keeps throwing late, an alt passing number this far below his recent form has plenty of cushion.

ALT: Over 47.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Texas State games had landed at 66, 57, 84 and 73, and the Bobcats had allowed 31 or more to every FBS opponent. - What happened: The game finished with 60 points, 12.5 over the number. San Diego State got to 31 with only 239 yards because a kickoff return and an interception return added 14 points without an offensive snap. - Worth watching: Texas State games keep going over this range, and this one did it even with SDSU converting just 1 of 10 third downs. Return scores are not something to plan on, so the Bobcats' own scoring is the real driver to track.

ALT: Torrance Burgess Jr. 75+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Burgess came in with 149, 214 and 140 rushing yards in his last three games, and we expected a heavy carry load. - What happened: He finished with 21 carries for 77 yards, 2.5 over the line. It came down to the final drive: he sat at 73 until a 4-yard run with 0:47 left pushed him past it. - Worth watching: The carries were there, but his long run was 15 and he averaged 3.7 a carry. Workload carries this angle; the margin shows how thin it gets when the long runs do not come.

ALT: Davian Jackson 40+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: He is the No. 2 back in a run-heavy offense, with 99, 77 and 57 yards in three of four games plus 5 rushing TDs. - What happened: Jackson ran 13 times for 53 yards, 13.5 over the number, and was past 40 before halftime. He also caught a 6-yard TD from Brad Jackson in the second quarter. - Worth watching: Texas State ran it 58 times, so there was room for both backs. As long as that run share holds, the backup still gets enough touches to make a modest yardage line live.

ALT: Chris Dawn Jr. 40+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Texas State's leading receiver had 247 yards (62 a game) and 4 TDs over the last three games, with Brad Jackson coming off a 244-yard, 5-TD week. - What happened: Dawn caught 5 passes for 57 yards with a long of 20, 17.5 over the line. - Worth watching: Sparks caught twice as many passes in this one, yet Dawn still cleared. In a 43-attempt game there is enough volume for two receivers to get there.

How the game played out

Texas State led 17-3 at the half after two long touchdown drives. San Diego State opened the third quarter with Jaylon Hawkins' 96-yard kickoff return, then Josiah Lucas scored twice on short runs to make it 24-17. Texas State got within 24-22 on a field goal and a safety, but its 15-play drive in between ended on downs at the SDSU 1. Cameron Cooper's 32-yard interception return made it 31-22, and the Bobcats' late touchdown, failed onside kick and final drive left them two points short.

Trends to watch

• Texas State ran 58 times and still threw 43 passes. That kind of play volume keeps its skill-player props in play.
• San Diego State converted 1 of 10 third downs and was outgained by 326 yards, yet scored 31. Its offense alone did not drive this total.
• Lucas carried 21 times for 111 yards and 2 TDs for SDSU, the one steady piece of the Aztec offense.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on alt lines, totals and player props, or see more at /cfb.