Wake Forest vs. Louisville Recap: Late Kicks Decide a 30-27 Road Win

Wake Forest beat Louisville 30-27 on the road, and Louisville had two chances to tie it late. The first half was a shootout: six touchdowns and a field goal, and Wake Forest led 24-21 at the break after Carlos Hernandez caught a 77-yard touchdown from Gio Lopez. The second half was all field goals. Connor Calvert's 32-yarder with 6:20 left put Wake ahead for good, and Louisville's last two drives both ended in failed field goal tries. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, both posted before kickoff: the alt Over 49.5, a Darius call, and Carlos Hernandez 5+ receptions.

What cashed

ALT: Over 49.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: All three Louisville games had gone over, and Louisville was scoring 46 and allowing 28 a game. The main total was 57.5, so 49.5 gave us eight points of cushion.
• What happened: The teams combined for 57 points, clearing 49.5 by 7.5. There were 45 points on the board at halftime, and Calvert's 35-yard field goal late in the third quarter pushed it over. The main 57.5 would have stayed under by half a point, because the second half produced only four field goals.
• Worth watching: This is exactly why we take the alt. The first-half pace matched our read, and the cushion covered the slowdown after the break. Louisville games are worth a look on the over, with room built in.

ALT: Carlos Hernandez 5+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Hernandez was averaging 7 catches and 107 yards a game. With WR Ny Carr out and Wake expected to be playing from behind, we had him as the first read.
• What happened: He caught 9 passes for 194 yards, clearing 4.5 by 4.5, and his long was the 77-yard touchdown in the second quarter. That was 9 of Lopez's 12 completions. The game script we expected never came, since Wake never trailed by more than four, but his share of the catches was even bigger than we figured.
• Worth watching: With Carr out, Hernandez was nearly the whole passing game. His receptions and yardage lines are worth a look every week while that holds.

How the game played out

Lincoln Kienholz threw for 324 yards on 27-of-36 passing, with a 61-yard touchdown to Jaleel Skinner just before halftime, and he ran for two short touchdowns. Tre Richardson had 85 receiving yards and Lawayne McCoy 75. Louisville converted 7 of 14 third downs to Wake's 2 of 10 and still lost, in part because it ran for just 75 yards on 38 carries.

For Wake, Lopez threw for 225 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions on 12-of-19 passing. Ty Clark III ran for 91 yards and two touchdowns, and Calvert made all three of his field goals. The teams finished nearly even in yards, 402 for Wake and 399 for Louisville.

Trends to watch

• Louisville's games keep going over, but this one needed the alt. The main number would have fallen half a point short, so cushion on Louisville overs is worth paying for.
• Hernandez caught 9 of Wake's 12 completions, and Lopez threw only 19 passes. Even on low volume, Wake's targets go to him.
• Louisville ran for 75 yards on 38 carries, and Kienholz finished at -19 rushing yards on 13 attempts. Its offense runs through Kienholz's arm, which makes his passing lines the ones to watch.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the total and the player prop, or head back to the college football hub.