Red Sox vs. Yankees Recap: Fried Holds Boston to 1 Run
The Yankees beat the Red Sox 9-2 on Wednesday to win their Wild Card series 2-0. Luis Garcia Jr. homered in the 4th, Cody Bellinger drove in 4 runs, including a three-run homer in a six-run 6th, and Max Fried allowed 1 run over 6 innings. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
Max Fried under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-293 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Fried (2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) had allowed 1 earned run or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts, and Boston was shut out 9-0 in Game 1. - What happened: 6 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk and 6 strikeouts on 98 pitches. - Worth watching: The price was steep, but the profile behind it was strong. This is the safer rung of a two-step ladder.
Max Fried under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-114 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Fried allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 12 of 20 starts, lefties hit .174 off him, and Boston's lineup had Jahmai Jones (.206) leading off. - What happened: The only run against him was Willson Contreras' solo homer in the 6th. Jones went 0-for-4 with 2 strikeouts. - Worth watching: The tighter rung near even money is where the value sat. Fried has the run prevention to justify it against weak lineups.
Sonny Gray 5+ strikeouts (-209 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Gray had 5+ strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts (149 K in 169 IP), and the Yankees lineup carries strikeout bats like Ben Rice and Jazz Chisholm Jr. - What happened: 5 strikeouts in 4.2 innings on 70 pitches. He reached the number before Boston pulled him with two outs in the 5th. - Worth watching: In an elimination game the hook comes early. A strikeout line set low enough to clear in four or five innings is the right way to play a starter in that spot.
Willson Contreras over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-202 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Contreras (.275, 27 HR, 81 RBI) batted 3rd against lefty Fried and was the Boston bat most likely to get on the board. - What happened: 2-for-2 with 2 walks and a 387-foot homer to right center in the 6th, upheld on review. That is 2 hits, 1 run and 1 RBI for 4 total. - Worth watching: He reached base all four times up. Boston managed 4 hits as a team, and he had half of them.
NRFI (no run 1st inning) (worth it at -135 or better): CASHED - Our read: Fried had a 3.15 first-inning ERA and Gray 3.41, and the 1st inning of Game 1 was scoreless. - What happened: Both sides went quietly in the 1st. Nobody scored until Garcia's homer in the bottom of the 4th. - Worth watching: Two starters with clean first innings, in a low-total game, is the setup we look for.
F5: Under 4.5 total runs (-200 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Fried and Gray had allowed 7 and 11 first-inning runs all season, and the full-game total sat at 6.5. - What happened: It was 2-0 Yankees after five, on Garcia's homer and a Bellinger RBI single in the 5th. Nine of the 11 runs came after that. - Worth watching: The first-five market isolates the starters. When both are strong and the bullpens are the question, this is the cleaner way to play the under.
How the game played out
Contreras cut it to 2-1 in the top of the 6th, and New York answered with six. George Lombard Jr. singled in a run, Austin Wells hit a sacrifice fly, Ryan McMahon drove in another on a groundout and Bellinger homered with two on. Garrett Crochet was charged with 4 runs without recording an out. Nick Sogard homered for Boston in the 7th, and Wells singled in the final run. The Yankees finished with 14 hits and 4 stolen bases.
Trends to watch
- Fried needed 98 pitches for 6 innings with 6 strikeouts. His earned-run unders are worth a look in the next round.
- Bellinger hit 2nd and drove in 4. His RBI line is worth a look while he stays in that spot.
- Garcia went 3-for-5 with a homer from the 3-hole. His hits line is one to check before the next series.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these bets? See player props and total, or check today's MLB board.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.