Heat vs. Hornets Recap: Charlotte Holds On 115-110, Seven Props Cash
The Hornets held off the Heat 115-110 in Charlotte. The Hornets scored 35 in the second quarter to lead 66-58 at halftime, then pushed it to 96-75 after three. Miami answered with a 35-19 fourth quarter and tied the game at 100, 102 and 104 before Charlotte closed it out. The Hornets led for 76 percent of the game, made 16 of 43 threes and won the glass 45-37. Brandon Miller led all scorers with 34. Seven DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
Bam Adebayo 3+ assists (-232 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Bam had 4 and 3 assists in two games and cleared 3+ in 4 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 10. - What happened: He finished with 4 assists in 39 minutes, 1.5 over the 2.5 line. Two of them set up Davion Mitchell baskets in the fourth quarter. - Worth watching: He keeps landing on 3 or 4 assists while playing heavy minutes. The cushion is thin, so the price matters.
Davion Mitchell 8+ points (-239 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: An easy alt rung. Mitchell cleared 8+ points in 10 of his last 10 and 5 of 5, and 2 of 2 this season against Charlotte. - What happened: He scored 22 on 8 of 13 shooting, 3 of 4 from three and 3 of 3 at the line, in 37 minutes. That is 14.5 over the 7.5 line. He had 15 of those points in the fourth quarter. - Worth watching: At 37 minutes and 13 shots, the 8+ rung has plenty of room. The catch is the price for a rung this low.
Davion Mitchell 15+ points + rebounds + assists (-410 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: An easy alt rung. He cleared 15+ PRA in 10 of his last 10 and 5 of 5, and 2 of 2 this season against Charlotte. - What happened: He posted 22 points, 1 rebound and 10 assists for 33 PRA, 18.5 over the 14.5 line. - Worth watching: He more than doubled the number. At -410 this is a ladder piece, not a standalone bet, so check the implied probability before you lay it.
Naz Reid 6+ rebounds (-413 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: An easy alt rung. Reid cleared 6+ rebounds in 9 of his last 10 and 4 of 5, and 2 of 2 this season against Miami. - What happened: He grabbed 9 rebounds, 7 on the defensive end, in 37 minutes. That is 3.5 over the 5.5 line. - Worth watching: He started and played 37 minutes. If that workload holds, the 6+ rung stays in range.
Naz Reid 12+ points (-443 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: An easy alt rung. He cleared 12+ points in 9 of his last 10 and 5 of 5, and 2 of 2 this season against Miami. - What happened: Reid scored 23 on 9 of 16 shooting and made 5 of 8 threes. That is 11.5 over the 11.5 line. He scored all 23 in the first three quarters. - Worth watching: Eight three-point attempts give him a high floor. The price is steep, so it fits best as one leg.
Davion Mitchell 5+ assists (-350 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: An easy alt rung. He cleared 5+ assists in 9 of his last 10 and 4 of 5, and 2 of 2 this season against Charlotte. - What happened: He dished 10 assists with 2 turnovers, 5.5 over the 4.5 line. Five of those assists came in the fourth quarter as Miami cut into the lead. - Worth watching: He ran the offense for 37 minutes. The assist rung looks sturdy while he has the ball this much.
ALT: Bam Adebayo 30+ points + rebounds + assists (-128 FanDuel / -137 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Bam cleared 30+ PRA in 6 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20. The best price of -128 implied 56 percent against about 63 percent from recent games. - What happened: A long shot that landed. He had 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists for 32 PRA, 2.5 over the 29.5 line, in 39 minutes. - Worth watching: It cleared by a thin margin. The case rested on the gap between the price and his recent hit rate, so it only makes sense at a number near -128.
How the game played out
Charlotte led by as many as 23, with Dennis Schroder adding 25 to go with Miller and Reid. Mitchell then scored or assisted on most of Miami's fourth-quarter run. With the game tied at 104, Grayson Allen hit a three and the free throw with 3:19 left, and the Hornets scored their last 7 points at the free-throw line. Miami had 24 fast break points to 8 for Charlotte and still came up short.
Trends to watch
- Mitchell played 37 minutes and finished with 22 points and 10 assists. His points and assists lines are worth a look while that role holds.
- Reid played 37 minutes and took 8 threes. His scoring floor looks stable at this workload.
- Bam played 39 minutes. His PRA number is the one to price shop, since he cleared it by only 2.5.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about player props and alt lines, or see today's NBA board.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.