DARIMARKET
NBA · Game recap · Thu, Nov 5

Heat vs. Warriors Recap: Curry and Davion Mitchell Lead 8 Cashes

Final · Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Warriors 120, Heat 100
Board plays on this game
8 of 16 hit. We post the misses too.

The Warriors beat the Heat 120-100 at home on Thursday night. Miami led 29-26 after one and the game was tied 53-53 at the half, then Golden State won the third quarter 38-23 and never let it get close again. The Warriors shot 53 percent from the field, handed out 36 assists and scored 50 points in the paint. Eight DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Stephen Curry 20+ points (-519 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Curry had scored 20 or more in every game this season, averaging 30.0. - What happened: 29 points in 28 minutes on 9 of 19 shooting, with 6 threes and a perfect 5 of 5 at the line. He cleared the line by 9.5. - Worth watching: He got there in limited minutes in a blowout. When the floor is this low against his scoring, the price is the only question.

ALT: Stephen Curry 30+ points + rebounds + assists (-342 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Curry had cleared 30 PRA in five of his first six games, averaging 38.7. - What happened: 29 points, 1 rebound and 4 assists for 34 PRA, 4.5 over the line. The points did nearly all the work. - Worth watching: With so little coming from rebounds, this combo leans on his scoring night. Fine as an alt, thinner if the game gets out of hand early.

ALT: Davion Mitchell 10+ points (-270 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Mitchell had 10 or more in each of his last 10 games. - What happened: 22 points on 9 of 18 shooting in 38 minutes, 12.5 clear of the line. - Worth watching: He played the most minutes on the Heat. That workload keeps a low scoring floor in play.

Davion Mitchell 22+ points + assists (-109 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: He had reached 22 points plus assists in eight of his last 10. - What happened: 22 points and 8 assists for 30, beating the number by 8.5. - Worth watching: Points and assists both showed up. This is the more interesting price of his props when the minutes hold.

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ALT: Davion Mitchell 2+ made threes (-102 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Two or more threes in seven of his last 10, near even money. - What happened: He made 4 of 9 from deep. Another long shot by our confidence that landed. - Worth watching: Nine attempts is real volume for a guard in his role. Volume is what makes this a coin flip worth taking.

ALT: Giannis Antetokounmpo 20+ points (-630 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: He had 20 or more in seven of eight games this season, averaging 28.3. - What happened: Exactly 20 points on 7 of 13 shooting in 31 minutes, plus 14 rebounds and 4 assists. It cashed by half a point. - Worth watching: He played 31 minutes in a 20-point loss and still got there. At this price, a lopsided game is the main risk.

ALT: De'Anthony Melton 4+ rebounds (+106 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Four or more boards in eight of his last 10, at plus money. - What happened: 6 rebounds in 17 minutes off the bench. - Worth watching: He got there in short minutes, which is why the plus price stood out.

De'Anthony Melton 7+ rebounds + assists (+116 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Seven or more rebounds plus assists in seven of his last 10, at plus money. - What happened: 6 rebounds and 2 assists for 8, 1.5 over. This was one of our long shots by confidence, and it landed. - Worth watching: Bench minutes swing night to night, so keep the stake small even when the price looks good.

How the game played out

Miami had the edge after one quarter. The third quarter flipped it: Golden State outscored Miami by 15 in that frame and pushed the lead as high as 20. The Warriors had 21 fast-break points and blocked 9 shots, and the Heat made 13 of 44 threes.

Trends to watch

  • Mitchell played 38 minutes and took 18 shots. If that role holds, his scoring and threes props stay on the board.
  • Curry needed only 28 minutes for 29 points. His scoring rate covers low alt lines even in short nights.
  • Draymond Green had 11 assists for the Warriors, and Golden State finished with 36 as a team. Ball movement like that spreads points around the bench.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alternate lines? Start with our alt line guide and implied probability, or see more on our player props page.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

Player hit rates from this game

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Free. Hit rates show past results, not a prediction. 21+.

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