DARIMARKET
NBA · Game recap · Mon, Oct 26

Mavericks vs. Heat Recap: Portis and Davion Mitchell Cash Six

Final · Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Mavericks 113, Heat 109
Board plays on this game
6 of 10 hit. We post the misses too.

Dallas won 113-109 in Miami, taking it in the fourth quarter. The Heat led for 58 percent of the game and by as many as 12, and they were up 84-83 after three. The Mavericks won the fourth 30-25. Cooper Flagg had 29 points, 6 rebounds and 11 assists for Dallas, and Giannis Antetokounmpo matched him with 29 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists for Miami. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all on Heat players, including one long shot.

What cashed

ALT: Bobby Portis 10+ points (-163 at DraftKings): CASHED

  • Our read: Portis had 10+ in 9 of his last 10, and Dallas was missing Lively and Aldama up front.
  • What happened: Exactly 10 points in 24 minutes.
  • Worth watching: He landed on the number. With short minutes, his points line has less room than his rebounds.

ALT: Bobby Portis 6+ rebounds (-146 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: 6+ boards in 8 of his last 10, against a thin Dallas frontcourt.
  • What happened: 12 rebounds in 24 minutes, 6.5 over.
  • Worth watching: This is the Portis line that had the most room. The matchup read played out.

ALT: Bobby Portis 2+ made threes (+121 at DraftKings): CASHED

  • Our read: He had made 2+ threes in 7 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20. At +121 the price implied about 45 percent against roughly 67 percent from recent games.
  • What happened: 3-of-6 from deep.
  • Worth watching: Plus money on a threes line he clears most nights is a price worth taking.
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ALT: Davion Mitchell 10+ points (-165 at DraftKings): CASHED

  • Our read: 10+ in 8 of his last 10 and each of his last 5.
  • What happened: 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting in 33 minutes, 11.5 over.
  • Worth watching: His scoring has been steady, and this line had the most room of his three.

Davion Mitchell 14+ points + rebounds (-102 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: 14+ in 7 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20, at close to even money.
  • What happened: 21 points and 0 rebounds for 21.
  • Worth watching: His points did all the work. His rebound floor is low, so this combo rides on his scoring.

ALT: Davion Mitchell 22+ points + rebounds + assists (+106 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: He had cleared 22+ in 7 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 20. At +106 the price implied about 49 percent against roughly 63 percent from recent games, so this was a long shot.
  • What happened: 21 points and 2 assists for 23, 1.5 over.
  • Worth watching: It was close. Without rebounds, he needs a big scoring night to clear a combo this high.

How the game played out

Miami's 14-of-25 free throw shooting stood out in a 4-point game, while Dallas made 13 of 14. P.J. Washington added 20 points and 9 rebounds for the Mavericks, and Kyrie Irving scored 18. Dallas blocked 10 shots.

Trends to watch

  • Flagg played 40 minutes with 11 assists. His assist and combo lines are worth a look while he runs this much of the offense.
  • Giannis posted 29-14-11. His triple-double type lines deserve attention in a Heat uniform.
  • With Lively and Aldama out for Dallas, opposing bigs' rebound lines stay worth checking.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see player prop and implied probability, or get more at /nba.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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