Nuggets vs. Pacers Recap: Murray, Siakam and Toppin Props Cash

Denver beat Indiana 114-102 and had this one in hand early. The Nuggets won the first quarter 27-19, scored 37 in the second and went to halftime up 64-41. Their lead peaked at 27 before the Pacers took the third quarter 37-26 to make the final margin look closer than the game felt. Denver won the paint 54-44, out-rebounded Indiana 51-45 and committed only 5 total turnovers. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Nuggets ML (-230 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Denver came in having won 7 of its last 10, Indiana 3 of its last 10. At -230 the price implied about 70%. We posted it as past results, not a prediction. - What happened: The Nuggets led for 93 percent of the game, per ESPN, and won by 12. - Worth watching: A -230 favorite is a short price. The edge here was form and size inside, so check that both still hold before laying that number again.

Jamal Murray 5+ assists (-367 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Murray had 5+ assists in 9 of his last 10 and 5 straight, and the Pacers were without Haliburton, which left them short on guard creation. - What happened: Murray finished with 8 assists in 34 minutes, 3.5 clear of the line. - Worth watching: The volume is real, but -367 leaves little room. A higher rung at a better price is worth checking before paying that much juice.

Jamal Murray 5+ rebounds (-118 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Murray cleared 5+ rebounds in 6 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20. At -118 (54% implied) we had it near 63% from recent games. - What happened: He grabbed 6 rebounds, all on the defensive glass, to go with 16 points and 8 assists. - Worth watching: This line tends to sit close to his output. Near even money it is worth a look; at a heavy price, less so.

ALT: Pascal Siakam 20+ points (-142 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Siakam cleared 20 points in 8 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20. Best price -142 (59% implied) vs about 74% from recent games. - What happened: Siakam led Indiana with 23 points on 10-of-18 shooting in 32 minutes, 3.5 over the line. - Worth watching: With Haliburton out, Siakam is carrying the scoring. While that holds, his points line is the first place we look on Pacers boards.

ALT: Obi Toppin 10+ points (-194 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Toppin hit 10+ in 9 of his last 10 and 17 of his last 20. At -194 (66% implied) we had it closer to 83%. - What happened: This one went to the wire. Toppin shot 4-of-11 and finished with exactly 10 points in 22 minutes, clearing by half a point. - Worth watching: 22 minutes off the bench is a light workload for a scoring prop. Minutes are the thing to check before backing it again.

Obi Toppin 16+ points + rebounds (-130 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Toppin cleared 16+ points + rebounds in 9 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20. At -130 (57% implied) we had it near 73%. - What happened: 10 points and 7 rebounds made 17, 1.5 over the line. The rebounds did the work on a cold shooting night. - Worth watching: The combo gave him two ways to get there, which is why it held while his shot was off.

How the game played out

Denver's scoring came from everywhere. Cameron Johnson had 18 on 8-of-12 shooting, Spencer Jones added 13 off the bench without missing a three (3-of-3) and DeMar DeRozan chipped in 11. Indiana got 15 from Larry Nance Jr., who hit 5-of-7 from deep, and won fast-break points 21-8. The free throw line was another gap: Denver went 16-of-19, Indiana 5-of-7.

Trends to watch

• Murray's all-around role: 8 assists and 6 rebounds in 34 minutes keeps both of his props in play.
• Siakam as the primary scorer while Indiana is short a lead guard.
• Toppin's minutes: at 22, his counting stats have thin margins.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More NBA coverage at /nba and NBA recaps. New to these markets? Start with the player prop and alt line explainers.