DARIMARKET
NBA · Game recap · Wed, Nov 4

Pacers vs. Grizzlies Recap: Indiana Takes the Fourth 27-21 to Win

Final · Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
Pacers 107, Grizzlies 103
Board plays on this game
6 of 13 hit. We post the misses too.

The Pacers beat the Grizzlies 107-103 on Wednesday night in a game with 16 lead changes. Indiana led 32-24 after one quarter and 54-52 at the half, Memphis carried an 82-80 lead into the fourth, and the Pacers won the final quarter 27-21. Andrew Nembhard led Indiana with 22 points, and Pascal Siakam added 20 on 8-of-13 shooting. Cedric Coward and Ty Jerome each scored 23 for Memphis, and Zach Edey had 11 points and 13 rebounds. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game: three Cam Spencer combo props, plus Andrew Nembhard points, Pascal Siakam's PRA line and Cedric Coward rebounds.

What cashed

Cam Spencer 13+ points + assists (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Spencer had cleared 13+ points plus assists in 8 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20, and the best price implied 51% against about 74% from recent games. - What happened: He finished with 7 points and 9 assists for 16, 3.5 over, in 24 minutes off the bench. - Worth watching: The assists did most of the work, which is the advantage of a combo line for a player who can score or pass.

Cam Spencer 16+ points + rebounds + assists (+100 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: He had cleared 16+ PRA in 8 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20, and even money implied 50% against about 74%. - What happened: 7 points, 6 rebounds and 9 assists added up to 22, 6.5 clear. - Worth watching: With three categories feeding it, this was the safest of the Spencer lines, and it came at plus money.

Cam Spencer 11+ points + rebounds (-102 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Spencer had 11+ points plus rebounds in 6 straight games (13, 15, 13, 14, 15, 14) after a 6 in the opener. - What happened: 7 points and 6 rebounds made 13, 2.5 over the number. - Worth watching: He shot 3-of-4 and grabbed 2 offensive boards, so a low shot count did not sink it.

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ALT: Andrew Nembhard 15+ points (-290 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Nembhard had scored 15+ in 5 of 6 games this season, averaging 18.5. - What happened: He scored 22 on 8-of-15, with 2-of-7 from three and 4-of-4 at the line, clearing by 7.5. - Worth watching: He played 38 minutes, the most on either team, and that workload is what makes a low alt points line hold up.

ALT: Pascal Siakam 25+ points + rebounds + assists (-720 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Siakam had cleared 25+ PRA in 6 of 7 games this season, averaging 32.9. - What happened: 20 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists made 26, just 1.5 over, in 30 minutes. - Worth watching: His scoring was efficient, but the rebounds and assists ran light, so at -720 the cushion was thinner than the price suggested.

Cedric Coward 7+ rebounds (-163 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Coward was averaging 8.8 rebounds in 29 minutes and had 7+ in all 6 games (7, 11, 11, 8, 7, 9). - What happened: He grabbed 9 rebounds, 4 of them offensive, in 33 minutes, 2.5 over the line, and added 23 points and 4 assists. - Worth watching: His minutes went up and his rebounding held steady, which is the profile we want behind a rebound prop.

How the game played out

Neither side ever led by double digits. Indiana's biggest lead was 9 and Memphis topped out at 8. The difference came at the line and in ball security: the Pacers went 15-of-17 on free throws while the Grizzlies went 9-of-15, and Memphis committed 20 turnovers against 10 Indiana steals. The Grizzlies also shot 12-of-44 from three.

Trends to watch

  • Spencer posted 9 assists and 6 rebounds in 24 bench minutes, so his combo lines carry more value than his scoring alone.
  • Nembhard played 38 minutes with Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell listed out for Indiana, and that workload is worth checking while they remain out.
  • Coward took 12 threes and played 33 minutes, so his usage and minutes both support his rebound and points props.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. See our guides on player props, alt lines and American odds, or visit the NBA hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

Player hit rates from this game

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