DARIMARKET
NBA · Game recap · Wed, Nov 4

Raptors vs. Nuggets Recap: Jokic and a 41-15 Third Quarter Decide It

Final · Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets
Nuggets 128, Raptors 109
Board plays on this game
6 of 14 hit. We post the misses too.

The Nuggets beat the Raptors 128-109 on Wednesday night, and one quarter decided it. Toronto led 35-33 after the first and 67-64 at the half, then Denver won the third quarter 41-15 to turn a three-point deficit into a 105-82 lead. The Raptors took the fourth 27-23, but the gap was already too wide. Nikola Jokic finished with 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists in 30 minutes on 13-of-19 shooting. RJ Barrett led Toronto with 22 points, and Scottie Barnes added 17 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game: Jokic and Jamal Murray assists, Cameron Johnson points, RJ Barrett points, Immanuel Quickley's combo line and Jamal Shead assists.

What cashed

ALT: Nikola Jokic 10+ assists (-113 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Jokic had 10+ assists in 7 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20, and -113 implied 53% against about 67% from recent games. - What happened: He handed out 11 assists, 1.5 over the line, as part of a 32-point, 10-rebound night in only 30 minutes. - Worth watching: He reached double-digit assists without heavy minutes, so even a lopsided game did not cut into this number.

ALT: Jamal Murray 5+ assists (-282 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Murray had 5+ assists in 9 of his last 10 and 5 of 6 this season. - What happened: He finished with 7 assists to go with 14 points and 5 rebounds in 28 minutes, 2.5 clear. - Worth watching: Denver piled up 35 assists as a team, and Murray's low alt line rides that ball movement. The price is short, so it works best as a parlay leg.

Cameron Johnson 12+ points (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Johnson had scored 12+ in 7 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20, and -114 implied 53% against about 67%. - What happened: He scored exactly 12, all of it on 4-of-8 from three, clearing by half a point. - Worth watching: When every point comes from deep, the outcome swings on a single make, so a line at his recent level is about as high as we would want to go.

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ALT: RJ Barrett 20+ points (-164 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Barrett had scored 20+ in 5 of 6 games this season, averaging 19.8. - What happened: He led Toronto with 22 on 7-of-17, including 3-of-7 from three and 5-of-8 at the line, in 33 minutes. - Worth watching: 17 shots and 8 free throw attempts point to steady usage, which is what keeps a 20-point line live.

ALT: Immanuel Quickley 20+ points + rebounds + assists (-620 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Quickley had cleared 20+ PRA in 5 of 6 games this season, averaging 26.5. - What happened: 13 points, 1 rebound and 7 assists made 21, just 1.5 over. - Worth watching: He shot 2-of-8 from three and still got there through his passing, but a margin this thin at -620 is a reminder that short prices are not free.

Jamal Shead 5+ assists (-138 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Shead had 5+ assists in 6 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20, and the best price implied 55% against about 66%. - What happened: He dished 6 assists off the bench in 20 minutes, 1.5 over the number. - Worth watching: He produces assists in limited minutes, which makes him a bench passer worth checking on nights Toronto's rotation shifts.

How the game played out

Denver shot 48-of-78 from the field, 62 percent, and outscored Toronto 76-46 in the paint. The Nuggets' lead peaked at 27. Aaron Gordon scored 17 on 7-of-9 shooting, and Bryce Hopkins added 18 off the bench on 6-of-7 shooting. Toronto turned it over 16 times, and Denver came up with 11 steals.

Trends to watch

  • Jokic got to 32, 10 and 11 in 30 minutes, so blowout risk did little to his assist and points lines here.
  • Toronto spread its playmaking around, with Quickley at 7 assists and Barnes and Shead at 6 each.
  • Hopkins played 28 minutes off the Denver bench, more than Gordon, and his role is worth tracking.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. See our guides on alt lines, player props and implied probability, or visit the NBA hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

Player hit rates from this game

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Free. Hit rates show past results, not a prediction. 21+.

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