DARIMARKET
NBA · Game recap · Wed, Oct 28

Thunder vs. Mavericks Recap: Dallas Pulls Away, Two Big-Man Props Cash

Final · Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Mavericks 120, Thunder 96
Board plays on this game
2 of 4 hit. We post the misses too.

Dallas beat Oklahoma City 120-96. The first half was close, with all six of the game's lead changes coming in the first quarter, and the Mavericks led 33-30 after one and 65-59 at the half. Dallas then won the third quarter 29-22 and the fourth 26-15, and its lead reached 27. Cooper Flagg led Dallas with 26 points and 8 assists, P.J. Washington added 18 points and 9 rebounds, and Zaccharie Risacher scored 13 on 5-of-6 shooting off the bench. For the Thunder, Ajay Mitchell scored 29 on 12-of-20 shooting and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 21 on 7-of-19. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Isaiah Hartenstein 9+ rebounds (-142 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: Hartenstein had posted 13, 12 and 6 rebounds this season while playing about 26 minutes a game. With Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams ruled out for OKC, we expected more rebounds to come his way. This was a long shot that landed.
  • What happened: He grabbed 14 rebounds, 4 offensive and 10 defensive, in 26 minutes, 5.5 over the line. He added 10 points on 4-of-6 shooting and 3 assists. Neither Holmgren nor Williams appears in the OKC box score.
  • Worth watching: His 26 minutes matched his season pattern. When OKC is short on bigs, his rebound line is worth checking again, though the price should reflect it.
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ALT: Daniel Gafford 7+ points (-270 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: Gafford had cleared 7+ points in 8 of his last 10 and 18 of his last 20, and -270 implied 73 percent against about 81 percent from recent games.
  • What happened: He scored exactly 7 on 3-of-4 shooting, clearing by 0.5. One of those makes was a 22-foot three off a Flagg assist in the first quarter, his only attempt from deep. He also had 11 rebounds, 6 of them offensive, in 27 minutes.
  • Worth watching: A big man's points line this low depends on a handful of shots. Gafford took only 4, so his shot volume is the number to watch before backing it at a heavy price.

How the game played out

Oklahoma City went 5-of-32 from three, and Dallas made 16 threes on 45 attempts. That gap in made threes was worth 33 points. Dallas also scored 17 fast-break points, while the Thunder had none. Kyrie Irving finished plus-25 in 27 minutes.

Trends to watch

  • Both starting centers did their work on the glass. Hartenstein had 14 and Gafford 11, and Dallas outrebounded Oklahoma City 49-43 with 15 offensive rebounds.
  • Oklahoma City's guards carried the scoring load, with Mitchell and Gilgeous-Alexander taking 39 of the team's 87 shots. Watch how that usage shifts if the lineup changes.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see alt line and implied probability, or get more at /nba.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

Player hit rates from this game

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