DARIMARKET
NBA · Game recap · Wed, Oct 28

Magic vs. Raptors Recap: Toronto Rolls, Barrett and Shead Props Cash

Final · Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
Raptors 129, Magic 99
Board plays on this game
8 of 11 hit. We post the misses too.

Toronto beat Orlando 129-99 and pulled away after the first quarter. The Raptors took the lead for good at 22-21 on an Immanuel Quickley free throw with 2:23 left in the first, led 32-25 after one and 69-53 at the half, then won the third quarter 34-23 to go up 103-76. Their largest lead reached 33. Scottie Barnes scored 28 on 11-of-17 shooting and RJ Barrett added 25 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists. Orlando turned it over 20 times, and Toronto finished with 15 steals. Eight DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: RJ Barrett 20+ points (-158 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: Barrett had cleared 20+ points in 9 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20, and -158 implied 61 percent against about 78 percent from recent games.
  • What happened: He scored 25 on 9-of-18 shooting with 3 made threes in 32 minutes, 5.5 over the line.

RJ Barrett 25+ points + assists (-108 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: He had cleared 25+ points + assists in 7 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20.
  • What happened: 25 points and 6 assists made 31, 6.5 over the line.

RJ Barrett 9+ rebounds + assists (-120 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: He had cleared 9+ rebounds + assists in 7 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20.
  • What happened: 9 rebounds and 6 assists made 15, 6.5 over the line.
  • Worth watching: All three Barrett lines came from one full stat line in 32 minutes. When he plays starter minutes, his scoring and his combo lines tend to move together.

Scottie Barnes 28+ points + assists (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: Barnes had cleared 28+ points + assists in 9 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20.
  • What happened: 28 points and 4 assists made 32, 4.5 over the line. He also had 6 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks in 31 minutes.
  • Worth watching: The points did the work here, not the assists, and he got there in 31 minutes of a blowout.
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ALT: Jamal Shead 4+ assists (-215 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: Shead had 4+ assists in 8 of his last 10, averaging 4.5, with 9 of his last 10 home games cleared, and Orlando ranked 24th defending assists.
  • What happened: He handed out 7 assists in 23 minutes off the bench, 3.5 over the line.

Jamal Shead 7+ rebounds + assists (-118 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: He had cleared 7+ rebounds + assists in 7 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20.
  • What happened: 4 rebounds and 7 assists made 11, 4.5 over the line. He added 13 points and 2 steals.
  • Worth watching: Shead's assists drove both lines in only 23 minutes. Bench minutes are the risk, but Toronto had 33 assists as a team.

Desmond Bane under 24.5 points + assists (-123 at DraftKings): CASHED

  • Our read: Bane had stayed under 24.5 points + assists in 9 of his last 10, averaging 18.9 and 16.3 over his last 3, and Toronto ranked 5th defending it.
  • What happened: He scored 13 on 3-of-14 shooting with 4 assists, 17 total, 7.5 under the line.
  • Worth watching: His recent average sat well below this number, which is what we want on an under. He also went 2-of-8 from three.

Franz Wagner under 29.5 points + rebounds (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: Wagner had stayed under 29.5 points + rebounds in 9 of his last 10, and the line sat right at the top of his range.
  • What happened: 15 points and 4 rebounds made 19, 10.5 under the line. He shot 4-of-11 and had 7 turnovers.
  • Worth watching: When a book sets a line at the top of a player's range, the under is worth a look. Here it was never close.

How the game played out

Toronto shot 50 percent from the field and 15-of-35 from three, while Orlando made 10 of 35 from deep. Toronto also had a 23-12 edge in fast-break points. Tristan da Silva gave Orlando 20 points off the bench on 8-of-10 shooting.

Trends to watch

  • Toronto's 15 steals and Orlando's 20 turnovers set the tone. Steals turn into transition chances, which is worth keeping in mind for Toronto guard lines.
  • Toronto won the glass 45-34. Trayce Jackson-Davis grabbed 11 rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see player prop and implied probability, or get more at /nba.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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