Browns vs. Steelers Recap: Pittsburgh Runs Over Cleveland, Three Cash

The Steelers beat the Browns 27-6 on Sunday, and they did it on the ground. Pittsburgh ran for 200 yards on 33 attempts, while Cleveland finished with 34 rushing yards and was sacked eight times. The Browns lost fumbles on each of their first two drives, and Pittsburgh turned the second one into a 9-yard Rico Dowdle touchdown run. The Steelers led the rest of the way. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Rico Dowdle 8+ rushing attempts (+100 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Dowdle had reached 8 carries in 6 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20. The +100 price implied 50%, well under the roughly 66% rate from his recent games. - What happened: Dowdle finished with 15 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown, 7.5 carries over the line. On Pittsburgh's first touchdown drive he had runs of 15 and 9 yards, then scored from 9 yards out. - Worth watching: Dowdle shared the backfield and still got 15 carries in a game Pittsburgh controlled from the first quarter. When the Steelers lean on the run like this, a carry line in this range looks reachable, and an even-money price on it is worth a look.

ALT: Pat Freiermuth 15+ receiving yards (-265 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Freiermuth had cleared 15 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 games and 16 of his last 20. The -265 price implied about 73%, against about 80% from his recent games. - What happened: He caught both of his targets for 35 yards, 20.5 over the line. His first was a 7-yard catch late in the first quarter on a drive that ended in a Chris Boswell field goal. The second was a 28-yard catch over the middle with 25 seconds left in the half, and he finished that drive himself on a 1-yard direct snap touchdown with one second left for a 20-6 halftime lead. - Worth watching: Two targets is a thin workload, and most of the margin came from one catch. The low alt number gave him room, but the steep price means one quiet game costs a lot.

ALT: Quinshon Judkins 2+ receptions (-145 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Judkins had at least 2 catches in 8 of his last 10 games and 12 of his last 20. The -145 price implied 59%, against about 67% from his recent games. - What happened: This one cleared by half a catch. Judkins caught both of his targets for 24 yards, and both came on the same third-quarter drive: two 12-yard catches from Deshaun Watson. That 12-play drive ended on downs. On the ground he had 11 carries for 25 yards. - Worth watching: Cleveland threw a lot from behind, with Watson attempting 39 passes, and Judkins still saw only 2 targets. The catch volume is thin even in a pass-heavy script, so we would want a fair price before going back to it.

How the game played out

The swing came in the last minute of the first half. Cleveland cut it to 13-6 on an Andre Szmyt 49-yard field goal with 45 seconds left, and Pittsburgh answered with a 6-play, 69-yard touchdown drive in 44 seconds. The Steelers added a 2-play, 59-yard touchdown drive in the third quarter to make it 27-6. Cleveland piled up 319 total yards but did not score a touchdown on three red zone trips and was stopped on downs twice.

Trends to watch

• Pittsburgh's offense ran through the ground game: 14 rushing first downs against 6 passing first downs.
• Cleveland's line had a rough day, allowing 8 sacks for 41 yards and leaving the Browns with just 1 rushing first down.
• Harold Fannin Jr. was Cleveland's clear top target, with 10 catches for 154 yards on 12 targets.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more, see alt lines, implied probability and our NFL hub.