Chiefs vs. Broncos Recap: Denver's 15-Point Fourth Seals It

The Broncos beat the Chiefs 28-24 in Denver on Sunday after trailing 24-13 going into the fourth quarter. Kansas City moved the ball well all day, with 399 total yards to Denver's 294, but the Broncos went 3-for-3 in the red zone and scored the final 15 points: a Nate Adkins touchdown catch plus a two-point conversion, then a 5-yard Jonah Coleman run with 1:56 left. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Patrick Mahomes 223+ passing yards (-111 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Mahomes had cleared 223+ passing yards in 6 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20. At -111, about 53% implied, we had him closer to 66%. - What happened: Mahomes completed 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions, clearing the line by 98.5. The big one was a 73-yard touchdown to Emmett Johnson in the second quarter. - Worth watching: Kansas City threw for 309 net yards and ran 24 times. When the volume is there, a modest alt passing number like this has plenty of cushion.

ALT: Broncos over 16.5 team points (-210 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Denver had scored 17+ in 8 of its last 10 and 5 of 7 this season, including 30 the week before, and Kansas City had allowed 20 to Seattle. - What happened: This one waited until the fourth. Denver had 13 points through three quarters on two Wil Lutz field goals and a 1-yard Bo Nix pass to Jaylen Waddle. The Adkins touchdown and two-point try got them to 21, and Coleman's run made it 28, 11.5 over the line. - Worth watching: Denver scored on all three red-zone trips. A floor line on a team that finishes drives is a steadier angle than chasing a full team total.

ALT: Marvin Mims Jr. 2+ receptions (-166 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Mims had 2+ catches in 9 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20. At -166, about 62% implied, we had him nearer 78%. - What happened: Mims caught 2 of his 3 targets for 10 yards, exactly what the line needed. He also ran twice for 19 yards. - Worth watching: His target count was light, so this stays a low-line, price-driven angle. The carries show Denver is finding other ways to get him the ball.

Bo Nix over 0.5 passing TDs (-311 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Nix had thrown a touchdown in 8 of his last 10 games and 15 of 18 last season, averaging 1.1 TD passes over his last 10. - What happened: Nix completed 20 of 32 passes for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, the 1-yarder to Waddle before halftime and the 2-yarder to Adkins in the fourth. He also threw the two-point conversion to Waddle. - Worth watching: Both scores came from inside the 5. As long as Denver keeps throwing near the goal line, his touchdown floor holds up.

How the game played out

Kansas City led 17-13 at the half and pushed it to 24-13 on Mahomes' 4-yard touchdown to Noah Gray late in the third. The Chiefs held the ball for 31:29 and did not turn it over, but 11 penalties cost them 105 yards. Denver converted only 2 of 11 third downs and still won by finishing every red-zone trip.

Trends to watch

• Mahomes threw 41 times with 3 touchdowns. Kansas City's passing volume keeps his yardage lines in play.
• Denver went 3-for-3 in the red zone, and Nix threw both touchdowns from short range. Short-yardage passing keeps Nix touchdown props and Broncos team-point floors on our list.
• Kansas City was flagged 11 times. Penalty yardage like that can extend opponent drives, which helps opposing team totals.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More NFL coverage at /nfl. New to these markets? Read our alt line and player prop explainers.