Patriots vs. Dolphins Recap: Stevenson Runs, Patriots Rally

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 24-19 in Miami on Sunday after trailing 13-3 at halftime. New England scored 21 straight points in the second half: a 43-yard Drake Maye touchdown pass to Kyle Williams, a 2-yard Maye touchdown run and a 48-yard strike to DeMario Douglas early in the fourth. Miami answered with a 35-yard Malik Willis touchdown to Kevin Coleman Jr. at the 2:04 mark, but the two-point try failed. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 36.5 total points (-290 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Games involving these two teams had gone over 36.5 in 16 of the last 20 and 8 of the last 10, and Maye had thrown for 321 in his last start. - What happened: The game finished with 43 points, 6.5 over the line. It was a slow start at 16 points by halftime, but the Douglas touchdown pushed the total to 37 with 12:39 left and Miami's late score added the cushion. - Worth watching: Both offenses hit big plays in the second half. A lowered alt total gave us room for a slow first half, which is the point of buying down.

ALT: Patriots over 18.5 team points (-340 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: New England had gone over 18.5 in 8 of its last 10 and 4 of its last 5. A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson were out, so we trimmed our confidence a bit. - What happened: The Patriots had 3 points at the half, then scored three second-half touchdowns to finish at 24, 5.5 over the line. Maye completed 16 of 20 passes for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. - Worth watching: Even short two key players, New England found explosive plays through the air. The price was steep, so this fits best as a floor in a larger card.

ALT: Rhamondre Stevenson 40+ rushing yards (-330 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: With Henderson out, Stevenson was the lead back with only Corey Kiner and a practice-squad call-up behind him. He had reached 40+ in 4 of 7 games even while splitting work (43, 47, 64 and 51). - What happened: Stevenson carried 19 times for 82 yards, 42.5 over the line, without a run longer than 9 yards. He added 3 catches for 8 yards. - Worth watching: That was pure volume, with New England running 36 times. As long as he holds the lead role, his rushing lines are worth a look.

Jaylen Wright under 13.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Wright had stayed under 13.5 in all 5 games he played (8, 11, 7, 11 and -1) on 1 to 6 carries. With Achane on IR, Ollie Gordon had been taking 17 to 25 carries a game as the lead back. - What happened: Wright ran twice for 5 yards, 8.5 under the line. Gordon got the work again with 19 carries for 69 yards. - Worth watching: Unders on backup running backs are a quiet angle. While Gordon keeps this workload, Wright's lines stay low-ceiling.

How the game played out

Miami controlled the first half with two Zane Gonzalez field goals and a 1-yard Willis touchdown pass to Malik Washington with 8 seconds left before the break. The second half flipped: Maye was efficient and the run game wore on, with New England holding the ball for 31:57. Willis threw for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception.

Trends to watch

• Stevenson took 19 carries and Kiner 7. Stevenson is the clear lead back while Henderson is out.
• Gordon carried 19 times to Wright's 2. Miami's backfield split keeps Wright unders in play.
• Both teams were sacked repeatedly, 3 times for New England and 5 for Miami. Pressure like that can stall drives, so a lowered alt total gave us room in this matchup.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More NFL coverage at /nfl. New to these markets? Read our alt line and total explainers.