Falcons vs. Buccaneers Recap: Bucs Run for 324 Yards in 16-0 Shutout

The Buccaneers shut out the Falcons 16-0 in a game Tampa Bay won almost entirely on the ground. The Bucs ran 56 times for 324 yards and finished with -2 net passing yards, with Baker Mayfield going 0/3. Chase McLaughlin kicked three field goals for a 9-0 halftime lead, and Bucky Irving's 4-yard run in the third quarter was the only touchdown. Atlanta turned it over four times, all on interceptions, and was 0-12 on third down. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Kenny Gainwell 10+ rushing yards (-221 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Gainwell cleared 10+ rushing yards in 8 of his last 10 and 16 of his last 20. At -221 the book implied 69%, and his recent games put it near 76%. - What happened: Gainwell ran 25 times for 140 yards, 130.5 over the line. He had a 20-yard run in the second quarter and a 28-yarder on the 90-yard touchdown drive in the third. - Worth watching: Tampa Bay split the work almost evenly, with Irving getting 27 carries and Gainwell 25. As long as both backs get that kind of volume, a low alt on Gainwell has a lot of cushion.

Bijan Robinson 60+ rushing yards (-298 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Bijan cleared 60+ rushing yards in each of his last 5, 9 of his last 10 and all 7 games this season. The -298 price implied 75%, and our number was 82%. - What happened: Robinson ran 19 times for 76 yards, 16.5 over the line, with a long of 26. He was past 60 before halftime thanks to a 10-yard run late in the second quarter, and he did not get a carry in the fourth. - Worth watching: The line held even with Atlanta trailing and throwing late. His floor is strong, but a game script like this one can cap the upside, so we would lean toward the lower alt numbers.

Jahan Dotson under 2.5 receptions (-180 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Dotson stayed at 2 or fewer catches in 8 of his last 10 and 6 of 7 this season, with 1 catch on 3 targets the week before. - What happened: Dotson caught 2 of 5 targets, so the under held by 0.5. Both catches went for real yardage: a 19-yarder on Atlanta's opening drive and a 76-yarder in the fourth quarter, for 95 yards total. - Worth watching: This one was closer than the price suggested. He drew 5 targets after seeing 3 the week before, so check his role before playing the under again.

How the game played out

The game turned on Atlanta's mistakes. The Falcons missed a field goal on their opening drive, and Tampa Bay's second field goal came right after an Atlanta interception. The only touchdown came on a 6-play, 90-yard drive in the third quarter built on runs of 46 yards by Irving and 28 by Gainwell.

Trends to watch

• Tampa Bay ran it 56 times and threw only 3 passes. If the Bucs keep leaning on the run like this, their running back lines are where the volume is.
• Irving had 170 yards on 27 carries, with a long of 46. He and Gainwell both reached 140 rushing yards.
• Atlanta was 0-12 on third down and 0-1 in the red zone. Robinson still got his 19 carries, which is a good sign for his rushing floor.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about player props, alt lines and our NFL hub.