Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche Recap: MacKinnon's 8 Shots, Roslovic Cashes

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-3 in regulation, scoring the last four goals after trailing 3-2 midway through the 2nd. Colorado outshot Toronto 33-23, but Mackenzie Blackwood made 17 saves on 22 shots while Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 33. Special teams split the game open: Toronto scored twice on four power plays, and Colorado came up empty on all five of its chances. Nathan MacKinnon scored twice in the 1st, then William Nylander and Auston Matthews took over. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Gabriel Landeskog under 2.5 shots on goal (-160 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Landeskog had stayed under this number most nights, 42 of 60 games last season and 3 of 4 this season, so we leaned under. - What happened: He finished with 0 G, 0 A and 2 shots on goal in 17:52 of ice time (3:35 on the power play), 0.5 under the line. He added 2 hits and a blocked shot. - Worth watching: His power-play minutes give him some shot chances, but the volume has stayed modest. The under is worth a look again at a fair price.

Jack Roslovic 2+ shots on goal (-155 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Roslovic had 2+ shots in all 5 of his games this season and in 45 of 69 last season, so the shot floor looked steady. - What happened: He put 5 shots on goal in 15:21 (1:18 on the power play), 3.5 over the 1.5 line. He did not score and finished -2. - Worth watching: He cleared the line with only 1:18 of PP time. If his minutes hold near this level, the 2+ shots number stays on our radar.

Kirill Marchenko 1+ points (-155 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Marchenko had a point in 4 of 5 games this season, so we liked him to clear the lowest points line. - What happened: He finished with 0 G, 1 A in 16:53 (3:36 on the power play). The point came on the power play at 12:02 of the 3rd, when he and Nylander set up Matthews for the goal that made it 5-3 Toronto. He had 0 shots on goal. - Worth watching: The point arrived late and on the man advantage, so his PP role is what carried this one. Watch his power-play usage before backing the points prop again.

Nathan MacKinnon 4+ shots on goal (-170 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: MacKinnon put 4+ shots on goal in 52 of 80 games last season, and Toronto had allowed a league-high 32.4 shots a game last season and 29.6 this season. - What happened: He finished with 2 G and 8 shots on goal in 23:56 (7:57 on the power play), 4.5 over the 3.5 line. He scored at 10:46 and 15:14 of the 1st, the second goal giving Colorado a 2-1 lead. - Worth watching: Nearly 8 minutes of PP time and close to 24 minutes overall keep his shot volume high. The angle holds up as long as the price stays inside where we would pass.

How the game played out

Nick Blankenburg opened the scoring for Toronto at 3:03 of the 1st before MacKinnon's two goals flipped it. In the 2nd, Nylander tied it on the power play, Brock Nelson put Colorado back ahead at 12:25, and then Toronto scored twice in 46 seconds: Nylander at 16:47 and Easton Cowan at 17:33 for a 4-3 lead. Matthews added a power-play goal in the 3rd and an empty-netter at 19:21. Bobrovsky made 10 saves against Colorado's power play.

Trends to watch

• Colorado's top unit gets heavy power-play time: MacKinnon 7:57, Martin Necas 8:03 and Cale Makar 7:40. That keeps the shot props for their stars in play.
• Toronto won with 23 shots, and Blackwood allowed 5 goals on 22 shots. Low Toronto shot totals do not always mean a quiet night on the scoreboard.
• Nylander and Matthews were in on most of Toronto's scoring. Nylander had 2 goals and 3 assists, and Matthews had 2 goals and 2 assists.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More from us: NHL board, what a player prop is and implied probability.