How DARIMARKET calculates hit rates and confidence
DARIMARKET calculates a hit rate as games cleared divided by games played, using each player's ESPN game log, and it shows confidence as its own 0 to 100 rating of how strong the case is for a line. Hit rates describe what already happened; confidence is an opinion about the case, not a forecast or a promise.
*Updated Nov 8, 2026, 10:40 AM ET. Source: ESPN game logs (box score stats). Past results only, research not picks.*
How is a hit rate calculated?
Hit rate = games that reached the number ÷ games in the sample × 100. DARIMARKET counts a game as a hit when the player's stat met or beat the threshold. The sample is shown next to every rate (for example 7 of 8), so a percentage never appears without its size.
Here is a real example from ESPN. Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams has 8 regular-season games in 2026. His rushing plus receiving yards, game by game from September 11 through November 1, were 41+24=65, 85+12=97, 88+70=158, 80+67=147, 49+27=76, 50+17=67, 99+22=121 and 56+3=59.
| Threshold (rush + rec yds) | Games cleared | Hit rate | |---|---|---| | 40+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | | 60+ | 7 of 8 | 87.5% | | 80+ | 4 of 8 | 50% | | 100+ | 3 of 8 | 37.5% |
The 59-yard game on November 1 is the one miss at 60+. These are past results from box scores, not a forecast for the next game.
Which games and which line count?
- Source: each player's ESPN game log (box score stats), pulled twice a day. No numbers are typed in by hand.
- Games that count: regular-season games, plus playoff games while the playoffs are on. Last season's playoff games drop out once a new regular season starts.
- Basketball cameos: games under 10 minutes are left out.
- The line: where FanDuel or DraftKings has posted a main line, the hit rate is counted against that line. Otherwise it is counted against the toughest line the player cleared in 8 of the last 10.
- Injuries: players listed out, doubtful or on injured reserve in ESPN's injury report are flagged or left out of previews.
Last 5, last 10 and this season
Last 5 shows recent form, last 10 smooths out one outlier, and this season shows the player's real role. DARIMARKET shows last 5 and last 10 side by side; members also see season, home and road, and versus-opponent splits. Early in a season a last-10 window can reach into last year, so check the dates. More: last 5 vs last 10 hit rates.
What is the confidence score?
Confidence is DARIMARKET's own 0 to 100 rating of how strong a play's case is, and the board is ranked by it.
| Confidence | Tier | |---|---| | 85 and up | Strongest plays on the board | | 78 to 84 | Middle tier | | 70 to 77 | Lower tier | | Under 70 | Long shots |
Confidence is shown beside the percentage a book's price implies, so you can compare the two. To turn an American price into a percentage, see implied probability explained: a -150 price implies 60%, because 150 ÷ 250 = 0.60. Safer alternate lines and live calls on the board are graded after the game and shown as cashed or missed in the nightly recaps.
Cover chance, matchups and weather
Cover chance weighs the last 20 games, counts recent games more, and is pulled toward 50% when the sample is small. Matchup ranks use what each defense allowed this season to the players DARIMARKET tracks (1st = toughest). Weather comes from the Open-Meteo forecast for the game window. Book prices from FanDuel and DraftKings move, so check your slip before you place anything. One-tap slips open in your own FanDuel or DraftKings account; DARIMARKET does not take or place bets and does not hold money.
What a hit rate leaves out
Opponent, game script, injuries to teammates, weather and minutes all shape a game. A 7 of 8 can become 7 of 9 tonight. Check the injury report and the matchup first. Browse every sport on the hit-rates page, see what a prop hit rate is, and see pricing: $4.70 a month founding price until Dec 1 (then $9.99), 24 hours free, cancel anytime.
See every player's hit rates free for 24 hours at darimarket.us.
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FAQ
How does DARIMARKET calculate a hit rate? Games where the player reached the threshold divided by games in the sample, from ESPN game logs. Kyren Williams cleared 60+ rushing plus receiving yards in 7 of 8 games this season, an 87.5% hit rate.
What does the DARIMARKET confidence score mean? It is DARIMARKET's own 0 to 100 rating of how strong the case for a line is: 85 and up is the strongest tier, 78 to 84 the middle, 70 to 77 the lower tier and under 70 long shots. It is an opinion about the case, not a promise about the result.
Where do the numbers come from and how often do they update? Player stats come from ESPN game logs pulled twice a day, and prices come from FanDuel and DraftKings. Spot a number that looks wrong? Email hello@darimarket.us and it will be checked against the box score.