Iowa State vs. Baylor Recap: Raynor's 256 Yards and a Late Cover

Baylor beat Iowa State 42-31, but the Cyclones made it a game at both ends. Iowa State jumped out 10-0 in the first quarter and led 17-7 midway through the second. Baylor then scored 28 straight points, starting with a 54-yard DJ Lagway run and a fumble recovery touchdown by Koltin Sieracki with 23 seconds left in the half. Iowa State kept coming, and that is where our plays lived. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Jaylen Raynor 182+ passing yards (-114 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Raynor had cleared 182+ passing yards in 6 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20. The -114 price implied about 53%, and his recent form pointed closer to 66%. - What happened: Raynor completed 22 of 37 passes for 256 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, 74.5 yards past the line. He hit Cameron Pettaway for a 50-yard score in the second quarter and Vince Benetti from 9 yards early in the fourth. He also ran 12 times for 23 yards and a late touchdown. - Worth watching: Iowa State threw 37 times while chasing for the entire second half. A passing yards line in the low 180s gives plenty of room when the game script forces volume.

ALT: Iowa State +16.5 (-225 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Iowa State had stayed inside 16.5 in 9 of its last 10 games and 7 of 8 this season. - What happened: Iowa State lost by 11 and covered by 5.5, but it went late. After Ryelan Morris scored from 11 yards out with 4:11 left, Baylor led 42-23, a 19-point gap. Raynor's 3-yard touchdown run at 1:45, followed by Aiden Flora's two-point pass back to Raynor, cut it to 31-42 and put the number back on the right side. - Worth watching: Big alt spreads cost real juice at -225, and this one needed a late score. The trend held, but the price leaves little room for a bad bounce.

How the game played out

Iowa State actually outgained Baylor 472 to 423 and held the ball for 36:01. Aiden Flora carried 26 times for 182 yards, including a 40-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Baylor was cleaner and more explosive: no turnovers, 1 penalty for 15 yards, and big plays like Taz Williams Jr.'s 62-yard touchdown catch from Lagway in the third quarter. Lagway completed 16 of 28 passes for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns, and ran 13 times for 119 yards.

Trends to watch

• Flora's workload: 26 carries for 182 yards makes him the engine of the Iowa State run game.
• Raynor's volume: 37 attempts in a game Iowa State trailed for the entire second half.
• Lagway as a runner: 13 carries for 119 yards and a 54-yard touchdown. His rushing line is worth a look alongside his passing numbers.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on how spreads work, see our point spread guide and alt line guide, or head to the CFB hub.