DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Sat, Nov 7

UCLA vs. Minnesota Recap: Knight Runs for 109 as UCLA Pulls Away

Final · UCLA Bruins at Minnesota Golden Gophers
UCLA 34, Minnesota 20
Board plays on this game
2 of 4 hit. We post the misses too.

UCLA beat Minnesota 34-20 in a game that stayed tight until the fourth quarter. The teams were level at 10-10 at the half and again at 17-17 after Minnesota's George Rohl caught a 4-yard touchdown from Drake Lindsey with 12:50 left. UCLA answered right away when Ty Dieffenbach hit Aidan Mizell for a 75-yard score, then did it again from 75 yards out at 7:21 after a Minnesota field goal. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Wayne Knight 70+ rushing yards (-125 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Knight had cleared 70+ rushing yards in 7 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20. The best price of -125 implied about 56%, and his recent run put him closer to 70%. - What happened: Knight carried 18 times for 109 yards, a long of 31 and a 1-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. That is 39.5 yards past the line. He added a 28-yard catch. - Worth watching: UCLA ran the ball 39 times and Knight took the lead share. As long as that workload holds, his rushing line is worth a look each week, especially at an alt number near even money.

ALT: Minnesota over 10.5 points (-320 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Minnesota had scored 11 or more in 12 straight games, including all 8 recent home games, and DraftKings implied a team total of 17.3. - What happened: Minnesota scored 20. Darius Taylor ran in a 3-yard touchdown in the second quarter, Luke Drzewiecki hit a 38-yard field goal as the half ended to reach 10, and the Rohl touchdown plus a 36-yard field goal finished the job. The team cleared the number by 9.5. - Worth watching: Minnesota got there on 296 total yards, 3.1 yards per rush and 4-15 on third down. A low alt team total held up even on an off day. At -320 the price is steep, so the edge has to come from the number being well under the main total.

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How the game played out

UCLA outgained Minnesota 466 to 296 and did it on only 16 pass attempts. Dieffenbach completed 8 passes for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns, an average of 18.9 yards per attempt. Minnesota held the ball for 32:52 but averaged 5.5 yards per pass. Mateen Bhaghani closed the scoring with a 36-yard field goal at 3:18.

Trends to watch

  • Knight's role is steady: 18 carries plus a catch, on a team that leaned on the run with 39 attempts.
  • UCLA's passing game lives on big plays. Mizell turned 2 catches into 150 yards and 2 scores, and Semaj Morgan added a 54-yard grab.
  • Minnesota's scoring floor held up: two Drzewiecki field goals and only 1 turnover kept points coming without a big rushing day.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alt numbers? Start with our alt line guide, read up on the total, or check tonight's board on the CFB hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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