Texas vs. Missouri Recap: Texas Scores Last 21 to Cash the ML

Texas beat Missouri 34-20 on the road after trailing for much of the afternoon. Missouri led 7-0 on a 2-yard Brett Norfleet touchdown catch, went up 13-10 on a 48-yard Blake Craig field goal, and took a 20-13 lead when Austin Simmons found Naeshaun Montgomery for 72 yards late in the third quarter. Texas scored the last 21 points. Arch Manning hit Jermaine Bishop Jr. for a 25-yard tying score, Raleek Brown caught a 23-yard touchdown with 5:03 left, and Brown ran in from 8 yards to close it. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Texas ML (-135 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Texas had won 8 of its last 10 games and 6 of 8 this season, and Missouri was +114 at home. - What happened: Texas won by 14. Manning completed 28 of 38 passes for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, and Texas held the ball for 32:26. Texas lost 2 fumbles and still controlled the fourth quarter. - Worth watching: A short road favorite price like -135 is worth a look when a team's form is this steady. Texas won this one with its passing game, not the run: 104 rushing yards on 31 carries.

ALT: Cayden Lee 60+ receiving yards (-149 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Lee had cleared 60+ receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 games and 12 of his last 20. The best price of -149 implied about 60%, and his recent run put him near 67%. - What happened: Lee caught 9 passes for 79 yards with a long of 22, 19.5 yards past the line. He led Missouri in catches on a day Simmons threw 43 times. - Worth watching: Lee's yards came from volume, not one big play. With Missouri running for 84 yards on 24 carries, the offense leaned on short throws, and that is the kind of role that keeps a receiving yards line in range.

How the game played out

Missouri's defense held Texas to 3.4 yards per rush and recovered 2 Texas fumbles, but the Missouri offense converted just 3 of 16 third downs. Gianni Spetic added field goals of 27 and 34 yards to keep Texas level before the late run. Montgomery's 72-yard catch was most of his 81 yards on 2 receptions.

Trends to watch

• Lee's target share: 9 catches is a steady floor for receiving yards and receptions lines.
• Raleek Brown's dual role: 17 carries for 85 yards plus a receiving touchdown.
• Manning's efficiency: 297 yards on 38 attempts, with Emmett Mosley V catching 5 passes for 85 yards.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn how to read a moneyline and what implied probability means, or check the CFB hub.