DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Sat, Nov 7

Penn State vs. Washington Recap: Becht, Totals and +6.5 Cash

Final · Penn State Nittany Lions at Washington Huskies
Penn State 28, Washington 25
Board plays on this game
6 of 6 hit.

Penn State won 28-25 at Washington, and the final score hides how lopsided the first half was. After a Washington field goal opened the scoring, the Nittany Lions reeled off four touchdowns and led 28-6 at the break. Washington never quit: three field goals from Tyler Robles and two touchdown passes from Demond Williams Jr., each followed by a two-point conversion, pulled the Huskies within 28-25 with 7:40 left. Penn State held from there, finishing with 414 total yards, 0 turnovers and 31:14 of possession. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Rocco Becht 1+ passing TDs (-275 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Becht cleared 1+ passing TDs in 9 of his last 10 and 17 of his last 20. Best price -275 (73% implied) vs about 83% from recent games. - What happened: Done early in the second quarter. Becht hit Zay Robinson for 24 yards at 14:43, then Chase Sowell for 45 at 10:03, for 2 TDs. - Worth watching: The 1+ rung is a pricey anchor. With this kind of floor, the 2+ rung at a longer price is the next thing to compare.

ALT: Rocco Becht 212+ passing yards (-115 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Becht cleared 212+ in 7 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 20. At -115 (53% implied) we had it near 63%. - What happened: Becht completed 16 of 27 passes and threw for 240 yards, 28.5 over the line. Sowell did a lot of the work with 4 catches for 125 yards. - Worth watching: He got there on 27 attempts, so efficiency carried it. A game script that keeps him throwing would only help.

ALT: Penn State over 17.5 points (-186 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Penn State cleared 17.5 in 4 of 5, 9 of 10 and 7 of 8 this season, with the team total main at 20.5. - What happened: The Lions were at 21 by 10:03 of the second quarter and finished with 28, 10.5 over the line. - Worth watching: The alt sat well below the main number, which is the point of this angle: lower risk for a lower price.

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ALT: Washington over 16.5 points (-350 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Washington had 17+ in 6 straight (5 of 5, 8 of 10), averaging 27.4 over its last 10, and DraftKings implied 23. - What happened: Down 28-9, the Huskies got to 17 on Baron Naone's 4-yard catch plus a two-point conversion late in the third, then added 8 more for 25, 8.5 over. - Worth watching: The floor held even on a slow first half. At -350, though, the price is steep for a single play.

ALT: Over 37.5 total points (-245 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: The main total was 44.5-45.5. Penn State games went over 37.5 in 9 of the last 10, Washington games in 7 of 10, with a last-10 average of 49.4. - What happened: The teams combined for 53, 15.5 over. The Naone touchdown in the third quarter pushed it past the number. - Worth watching: Penn State did all of its scoring before half and Washington did most of its after, and the alt still cleared with room. That cushion is what an alt total under the main is built for.

ALT: Penn State +6.5 (-200 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: The main line was Penn State +2.5, so this bought 4 points through the 3 and the 6. Penn State had covered +6.5 in 8 of its last 10 and 6 of its last 8 road games. - What happened: Penn State won outright by 3, clearing the number by 9.5. The late Washington rally never got inside the cushion. - Worth watching: Buying through the key numbers mattered here: a 3-point game is exactly where those points earn their price.

How the game played out

Penn State's run game set the tone. Carson Hansen ran for 119 yards on 14 carries with a 12-yard score, and Cam Wallace broke a 46-yard touchdown run before half. Washington's offense came alive after the break behind Williams, who threw for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Huskies were stuck kicking field goals in the first half.

Trends to watch

  • Becht's big-play targets: Sowell averaged 31.3 yards per catch on 4 receptions.
  • Penn State's ground game: 174 rushing yards on 37 attempts.
  • Washington's second-half push: 19 unanswered points after halftime.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn how a team total and an alt line work, or check the CFB hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

Player hit rates from this game

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