Texas St vs. Boise St Recap: Boise Wins 46-45, Six Plays Cash

Boise State beat Texas State 46-45 in a game with four lead changes in the fourth quarter. Boise scored touchdowns on its first four drives and led 28-3 at the half. Texas State answered with 36 straight points, capped by a Jayden Bradley 20-yard interception return that made it 39-28 with 8:58 left. Boise then scored three touchdowns in the final 6:15, and Akeem Wright's 18-yard catch with 2:40 left was the winner. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Texas State +6.5 (+162 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Texas State had covered +6.5 in 9 of its last 10 and 6 of 8 on the road, with an average margin of +11.7 over the last 10. The main line was +10.5, so this alt gave up 4 points for a better price. - What happened: Texas State lost by 1, inside the number by 5.5. The Bobcats trailed by 25 at the half, so the comeback is what got this one home. - Worth watching: This team showed it can come back from a big deficit. When the market sets Texas State as a double-digit dog, the alt cushion at plus money is worth checking.

ALT: Texas State over 23.5 team points (-162 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Texas State had scored 24+ in 8 of its last 10, averaging 38.1. The Boise -10.5 spread and 63.5 total implied about 26.5 for the Bobcats. - What happened: Texas State finished with 45, clearing 23.5 by 21.5. It had only 3 at the half, then put up 42 after the break. Brad Jackson threw for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns and added a 35-yard touchdown run. - Worth watching: The first half was slow, so this one needed patience. The offense scores in bunches, which keeps team overs in play.

ALT: Boise State over 30.5 team points (-340 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Boise had scored 31+ in 6 straight and 7 of its last 8 at home. The market implied about 37. - What happened: Boise scored 46, clearing 30.5 by 15.5. It had 28 at the half and went over on Rasean Jones' 9-yard touchdown at 6:15 of the fourth. - Worth watching: At this price the payout is small. The angle held, but the stall in the third quarter shows why a low alt line matters.

ALT: Chris Dawn Jr. 40+ receiving yards (-235 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Dawn had cleared 40 yards in 10 of his last 10 and 17 of 19. The -235 price implied 70%, against about 89% from recent games. - What happened: Dawn caught 5 balls for 71 yards, 31.5 over the line. Most of it came on one play: a 67-yard touchdown from Jackson that started the comeback in the third quarter. - Worth watching: One long catch did the work here. His floor is steady enough that this line stays worth a look.

ALT: Chris Dawn Jr. 4+ receptions (-260 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Dawn had 4+ catches in 10 of his last 10 and 16 of 19. The price implied 72% against about 86% from recent games. - What happened: He finished with 5 catches, clearing by 1.5. - Worth watching: Jackson spread the ball around, with three Bobcats at 5 catches. The margin was thin, so we would compare this to the yards line before playing both.

Rasean Jones 60+ receiving yards (-182 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Jones had 60+ receiving yards in 5 of 6 games played and 4 of his last 5. We expected a fast-paced game. - What happened: Jones caught 9 passes for 117 yards and 3 touchdowns, 57.5 over the line. He scored at the end of the first half on a 12-yarder from Maddux Madsen, then caught two fourth-quarter scores from Max Cutforth. - Worth watching: Jones was the target in the red zone when Boise needed points. That workload makes him worth tracking.

How the game played out

Boise controlled the clock early and finished with 37:01 of possession. The third quarter swung it: Boise went punt, downs, punt, punt while Texas State scored touchdowns on four straight drives. Zechariah Sample's 72-yard catch put the Bobcats up 45-40, but Boise went 75 yards in 6 plays to take it back.

Trends to watch

• Boise ran 40 times to Texas State's 24 and won time of possession by a wide margin.
• Texas State hit big plays: touchdowns of 67, 44 and 72 yards through the air.
• Third down was a gap: Boise converted 9 of 16, Texas State 6 of 15.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alt lines? See our alt line guide, read up on implied probability, or head to the college football hub.