N Illinois vs. UNLV Recap: Over 47.5 Cashes in 31-24 UNLV Win

UNLV beat Northern Illinois 31-24. UNLV scored on the first snap, a 75-yard Jackson Arnold pass to Kayden McGee, and the teams traded the lead until UNLV scored the last two touchdowns of the first half to go up 24-17. Every point came before the 9:31 mark of the third quarter, and the fourth was scoreless. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 47.5 total points (-260 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Games involving these two teams had gone 48+ in 16 of their last 20 combined, and 8 of 10 lately. - What happened: The game finished with 55 points, 7.5 over the line. It went over on Jai'Den Thomas' 60-yard touchdown run early in the third quarter, which made it 31-17. - Worth watching: Both offenses moved the ball, with NIU at 493 total yards and UNLV at 473. The scoreless fourth quarter is a reminder that a low alt total gives you room when a game stalls late.

ALT: Northern Illinois over 13.5 team points (-184 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: NIU had cleared 13.5 in 8 of its last 10 and 5 of 7 this season. With the game total in the high 40s, it only needed two scores. - What happened: NIU scored 24, clearing 13.5 by 10.5. It got there in the first quarter, when Taron Dickens hit DeAree Rogers for a 12-yard touchdown to make it 14-10. - Worth watching: NIU ran for 240 yards on 38 carries and held the ball for 35:09. That kind of ground game gives a modest team total a solid floor.

ALT: Taron Dickens 1+ passing TDs (-174 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Dickens had thrown at least one touchdown pass in 8 of his last 10 games and 14 of 16. The -174 price implied 64%, against about 79% from recent games. - What happened: Dickens threw 2 touchdown passes, clearing by 1.5. The first was the 12-yarder to Rogers late in the first quarter. The second was a 61-yard strike to George Dimopoulos in the third. He completed 19 of 37 passes for 253 yards with 1 interception and ran 8 times for 50 yards. - Worth watching: Dimopoulos (7 catches, 127 yards) and Rogers (7 catches, 96 yards) were his top targets. With a steady track record and two productive receivers, this line stays on our radar.

How the game played out

NIU had more yards and more time of possession, but came up short in scoring chances. Two NIU field-goal tries came up empty, and an 11-play, 86-yard drive in the third quarter ended in an interception that Mumu Bin-Wahad returned 53 yards. UNLV's Thomas finished with 114 rushing yards on 16 carries.

Trends to watch

• NIU outgained UNLV 493 to 473 and converted 9 of 17 on third down, compared with 5 of 11 for UNLV.
• UNLV hit big plays: a 75-yard touchdown pass and a 60-yard touchdown run.
• Jackson Arnold threw 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, so both defenses had chances to make plays.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about totals, see how implied probability works, or visit the college football hub.