Rays vs. Guardians Recap: Rasmussen, Messick Earned-Run Unders Cash

The Rays beat the Guardians 3-1 in Game 5 of the ALCS and lead the series 3-2. Tampa Bay scored a run in each of the first three innings, two of them off Parker Messick, and Drew Rasmussen did the rest with seven innings of one-run ball. Cleveland's only run came in the sixth, when Steven Kwan scored on a Chase DeLauter groundout. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Drew Rasmussen under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-295 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Rasmussen had allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of his last 10 starts and 25 of 32 this year, with a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He held Cleveland to 2 earned runs over 6 innings in Game 1, and the series was tied 2-2. - What happened: Rasmussen went 7.0 innings and allowed 1 earned run on 4 hits, 1.5 under the line. He walked 1, struck out 6 and threw 95 pitches, 69 for strikes. The one run scored in the sixth: Kwan singled, Jose Ramirez singled him to third, and DeLauter's groundout to first brought him home. Rasmussen then retired the side in the seventh after a Nathaniel Lowe single, getting Patrick Bailey to ground into a double play. - Worth watching: He has now held Cleveland to 2 earned runs or fewer twice in this series. When a starter is this consistent and the opponent manages only 4 hits, his earned-run under stays worth a look, even at a heavy price.

Parker Messick under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-239 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Messick had allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 28 of 35 starts (2.56 ERA) and 8 of his last 10. He blanked the Rays over 5 innings in Game 2, and Cleveland had pulled him early in the playoffs (4.1, 2.1 and 5.0 innings). - What happened: This one cashed with no room to spare. Messick allowed 2 earned runs in 2.0 innings, 0.5 under the line. Jonny DeLuca drew a bases-loaded walk to score Yandy Diaz in the first, and Jonathan Aranda singled in Ben Williamson in the second. Cleveland went to Tim Herrin to start the third after 57 pitches from Messick. Herrin gave up the third Tampa Bay run when Chandler Simpson, who led off the inning with a double, scored on a Liam Hicks single. - Worth watching: The early hook is exactly what our read flagged. A starter who gets pulled early has fewer innings to give up runs, which helps an earned-run under. The risk is the one we saw here: a short outing can still pile up runs fast.

How the game played out

Cleveland's bullpen kept it close after Messick left. Herrin, Shawn Armstrong, Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith combined for 7 innings and allowed one run. Tampa Bay ran into an out at the plate in the fourth, when Taylor Walls was thrown out trying to score on an Aranda single. Bryan Baker closed it in the ninth, getting Travis Bazzana to ground out with a runner on second.

Trends to watch

• Yandy Diaz had 3 hits in 5 at-bats from the leadoff spot, and Aranda added 2 hits and an RBI. Tampa Bay's top of the order is driving the offense.
• Kwan had 2 hits in 4 at-bats for Cleveland, and Hicks had 2 hits, a walk and an RBI for the Rays. Both stay worth checking for hit props.
• Rasmussen struck out 6 in 7 innings while pitching deep into the game. His outs and strikeout lines are worth checking before his next start.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see player props, American odds and implied probability.