Buccaneers vs. Bears Recap: Santos Walk-Off, Five Plays Cash

The Bears beat the Buccaneers 27-24 in Chicago on a 38-yard Cairo Santos field goal as time expired. Chicago jumped out 14-0 in the first quarter on two Caleb Williams touchdown passes, but Williams also threw 4 interceptions and the Bears turned it over 5 times. Tampa Bay tied it 24-24 with 2:51 left on a Bucky Irving touchdown and a Baker Mayfield two-point run before Santos won it. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Rome Odunze 30+ receiving yards (-310 FanDuel / -286 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Odunze had cleared 30+ receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 games and 18 of his last 20. The best price of -286 implied 74 percent against about 85 percent from recent games. - What happened: 4 catches on 7 targets for 60 yards, including a 9-yard touchdown on the opening scoring drive. He cleared by 30.5. - Worth watching: Seven targets in a game where Chicago threw 37 times is steady volume. The low alt rung keeps paying while that share holds.

Caleb Williams 32+ pass attempts (-107 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Williams had cleared 32+ pass attempts in 7 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20. At -107, the price implied 52 percent against about 67 percent from recent games. - What happened: 22 completions on 37 attempts for 279 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He cleared by 5.5. - Worth watching: Chicago ran only 22 times. When the Bears lean on the pass like this, attempts are a cleaner bet than yards or touchdowns.

Bucky Irving 16+ rushing attempts (+101 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Irving had cleared 16+ rushing attempts in 7 of his last 10 games and 12 of his last 18. At +101, the price implied 50 percent against about 66 percent from recent games. - What happened: 20 carries for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 4 catches for 28 yards. He cleared by 4.5. - Worth watching: Tampa Bay held the ball for 32:52 and Irving took 20 of their 28 rushing attempts. A plus-money price on that kind of workload is worth checking every week.

Buccaneers +15.5 (alt, -430 FanDuel / -406 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Our projected margin was 2.6 for Chicago against a main spread of 6. The alt line added 9.5 points of cushion on top of that. - What happened: Tampa Bay lost by 3, covering with 12.5 points to spare. They trailed 24-13 in the third quarter and still tied the game late. - Worth watching: Big alt cushions cost a lot of juice, but they hold up in games that swing on turnovers like this one.

ALT: Under 54.5 total points (-274 DraftKings / -290 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: The main total was 47.5 and the two teams' last 10s averaged 44.3. Under 54.5 had cashed in 16 of their last 20. - What happened: The teams combined for 51, clearing by 3.5. Two late scores, the tying touchdown and the walk-off field goal, pushed it closer than the game looked for most of the night. - Worth watching: The teams combined for seven turnovers, including a pick-six, and this still stayed under. The alt cushion is what made room for a messy fourth quarter.

How the game played out

Chicago scored on its first two drives, then Williams threw interceptions on back-to-back drives in the second quarter. Jaylon Johnson's 67-yard pick-six in the third made it 24-13. Tampa Bay answered with a field goal and the late touchdown, and Mayfield finished 18 of 32 passing, 243 yards and 2 interceptions.

Trends to watch

• Luther Burden III caught 7 of 9 targets for 97 yards and a 56-yard score. His receiving yards line is worth a look while Williams keeps throwing this much.
• Irving scored both Tampa Bay touchdowns on the ground. His anytime touchdown price fits when he is getting 20 carries.
• Tampa Bay was 2-12 on third down and still had a chance to win. Third-down trouble is worth weighing when pricing their team total.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to the terms? See alt line, player prop and implied probability. More games on the NFL hub.