Lions vs. Dolphins Recap: Detroit Grinds It Out, St. Brown Hits 7+

The Lions beat the Dolphins 19-9 in Miami in a game built on field goals. Jake Bates kicked four of them, from 28, 40, 33 and 43 yards, and Zane Gonzalez answered with three for Miami. The only touchdown came late in the third quarter, when Jahmyr Gibbs ran in from 8 yards out to make it 16-6. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Lions ML (-290 DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Detroit had won six of its last ten, Miami two of its last ten, and -290 put the implied chance at about 74%.
• What happened: Detroit never trailed and won by 10. The defense held Miami without a touchdown, and the Dolphins were 0-3 in the red zone.
• Worth watching: Detroit's offense was far from sharp, finishing 1-4 in the red zone and 3-12 on third down, and still won comfortably. A heavy moneyline price like this one leans on the defense as much as the offense, and that part held up.

ALT: Amon-Ra St. Brown 7+ receptions (+105 DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: St. Brown had cleared 7 catches in seven of his last ten. At +105 (49% implied) we had it closer to 63%, so this was a plus-money long shot we liked on price.
• What happened: St. Brown caught 8 of his 10 targets for 86 yards, 1.5 over the line. He was Jared Goff's top target by a wide margin, with Sam LaPorta next at 5 targets.
• Worth watching: Ten targets in a low-scoring game is the volume this prop needs. When Detroit's passing game runs through him this heavily, his receptions line stays worth a look at plus money.

How the game played out

Neither offense moved the ball well. Detroit gained 270 yards and Miami 228. Goff completed 17 of 25 passes for 170 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, and Gibbs carried 20 times for 74 yards and the lone touchdown. For Miami, Malik Willis completed 13 of 25 passes for 128 yards and was sacked 3 times, while Ollie Gordon II ran 16 times for 55 yards. Each team turned the ball over once.

Trends to watch

• Gibbs drew 20 carries but averaged 3.7 a carry. The workload makes his touchdown and attempts props more appealing than a high rushing yards line.
• St. Brown's target share is steady. Detroit's other pass-catchers were barely involved, which concentrates the receiving work on him.
• Miami was 0-3 in the red zone and settled for field goals. Until that changes, Dolphins team totals carry a low ceiling.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. See how a moneyline works and what implied probability means. More at /nfl.