Packers vs. Patriots Recap: Love Throws 3 TDs, Five Plays Cash

The Packers beat the Patriots 45-27 in New England. Green Bay jumped out 17-0, led 24-14 at the half and put it away with 18 points in the third quarter. Jordan Love was close to perfect, completing 23 of 29 passes for 372 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions, and the Packers defense picked off Drake Maye 3 times. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Jordan Love 2+ passing TDs (+104 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Love cleared 2+ passing touchdowns in 7 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 20. At +104 (49% implied) we had it near 63%. - What happened: He threw 3: a 5-yarder to Matthew Golden in the first quarter, then 10 yards to Savion Williams and 39 yards to Christian Watson in the third. He also ran one in from 13 yards out. - Worth watching: Plus money on a QB touchdown line with a recent hit rate this strong is a price worth checking each week.

ALT: Drake Maye 190+ passing yards (-332 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Maye cleared 190+ in 7 of 8 games this season, averaging 247.9. - What happened: He threw for 299 yards on 21 of 38 passing with 3 touchdowns. He cleared the line by 109.5, helped by a game script that kept New England throwing. - Worth watching: Trailing teams throw. When the Patriots fall behind, his yardage floor gets even safer.

ALT: Patriots over 17.5 team points (-330 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: New England scored 18+ in 8 of 8 home games and 8 of its last 10, averaging 26.4. The DraftKings line implied about 24. - What happened: The Patriots scored 27, even with 4 turnovers. Touchdowns from Rhamondre Stevenson, Efton Chism III, Mack Hollins and Corey Kiner got them there. - Worth watching: A low alt team total for a home offense with this kind of scoring floor held up on a bad day. That is what the cushion is for.

ALT: Hunter Henry 25+ receiving yards (-259 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Henry cleared 25+ receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 and 16 of his last 20. - What happened: He caught all 3 of his targets for 35 yards, with a long of 21. He cleared by 10.5. - Worth watching: Steady but low volume. The alt line is the right way to play him.

Hunter Henry 3+ receptions (-280 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Henry had 3+ catches in 9 of his last 10 and 5 of his last 5, averaging 4.7 over his last 3. - What happened: He finished with exactly 3 catches on 3 targets. It cleared by half a catch. - Worth watching: With only 3 targets, this was tight. His target share is the number to watch before backing it again.

How the game played out

Green Bay's receivers did the damage. Golden caught 10 of 10 targets for 164 yards and Watson had 7 catches for 171 yards. The Packers won time of possession 35:01 to 24:59 and did not turn it over. Xavier McKinney had 2 of the 3 interceptions. DeMario Douglas led New England with 102 receiving yards.

Trends to watch

• Golden and Watson each topped 160 receiving yards. Packers receiver yardage lines are worth a look when Love is this efficient.
• Maye threw 38 times. His attempts and yardage lines fit games where New England falls behind early.
• Kaleb Johnson led Green Bay with 14 carries for 68 yards. His rushing line is worth tracking as the lead back.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to the terms? See alt line, total and implied probability.